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Mixed martial arts Serie A Best Bets Feb 11th-13th: Value Picks for Five Matches from Italy
Serie A Best Bets: 11th-13th February
As Napoli presents as a one-club wrecking ball throughout Italy’s most picturesque regions, the rest assume their positions to simply play catch up. Not only does Serie A Best Bets hitch a ride in Naples as the ball is readied once more, but there are also stops in Genoa and Lecce, to name just two.
In this article:
- Empoli vs Spezia Preview & Best Bet
- Lecce vs Roma Preview & Best Bet
- Napoli vs Cremonese Preview & Best Bet
- Udinese vs Sassuolo Preview & Best Bet
- Sampdoria vs Inter Milan Preview & Best Bet
Empoli vs Spezia Preview
Saturday, February 11th, 14:00 (UK)
We start with referee watch as Antonio Giua takes charge of Empoli (12th) vs Spezia (17th) on Saturday afternoon. In terms of card averages, Giua’s 6.17 cards per90 (six matches) figure in Serie A is the tallest of all officials.
From August to the start of December, Giua also filled in in Serie B, Italy’s second division. During his time overseeing proceedings in Serie B, 7, 6, 5 8 and 6 cards followed in Giua’s officiating.
The only event this season where less than five cards were brandished across the two leagues came during Salernitana’s visit to Monza. Notably, this was where a 74th-minute red card for Antonio Candreva summed up the away side’s bleak afternoon.
In terms of the teams taking part, both Empoli (2.60) and Spezia (2.50) come into the game with lofty home and away card averages. It’s a good start, as is Spezia’s dire need to keep picking up points. Considering they’re just four points off Hellas Verona in 18th, a spirited visiting victory will go a long way in easing any tensions in the camp.
Empoli vs Spezia Best Bet
The 3.76 second-half card average from Giua and the 76% of matches that saw both teams carded after the break suggests second-half cards could be the answer here. Couple that train of thought with an Empoli goal, and we’re at a bet builder price worth considering.
The hosts have scored against each of Roma, AC Milan, and Sassuolo at home as they navigate the perils of top-flight football. Interestingly, no team has lost more away games than Spezia (8) this season. After ten matches on the road, this travelling Spezia ensemble can only boast a shy four goals scored.
- Selection: Second Half Card Each & Empoli or Draw and to Score 1+ Goal
- Best Odds: 1.90 (bet365)
- Stakes: 10/10
Lecce vs Roma Preview
Saturday, February 11th, 17:00 (UK)
Locking in an odds-against price for both teams to score is an unusual feat in this market, especially for a handy top-four side heading to a Lecce home outfit that’s no stranger to finding a goal. Looking back at the campaign so far, I Giallorossi have scored in 9/10 matches on home soil.
Juventus’ 90 minutes in Lecce saw the Old Lady stuff three points into her carry-on and escape with a slender 0-1 win. But that was it; the only occasion adoring support has failed to celebrate a goal.
If this impressive run is to be thwarted once more, Roma presents as a trustworthy contender. However, at 2.10 for the hosts to serve up something they’ve managed in 90% of matches against the likes of Lazio (x2 goals), AC Milan (x2), Atalanta (x2), Inter and Fiorentina – the price seems like a large one.
Lecce vs Roma Best Bet
At the Stadio Olimpico, Gabriel Strefezza equalised just before the break to provide some hope despite a Lecce Red card ten minutes earlier. Roma went on to win the game, but it may have been a different story if it wasn’t backs to the wall for Marco Baroni’s men.
This is not just a price play, Lecce have the capability of breaching this Roma defence on their patch.
- Selection: Yes on Both Teams To Score
- Best Odds: 2.10 (bet365)
- Stakes: 10/10
Napoli vs Cremonese Preview
Saturday, February 12th, 19:45 (UK)
How does one get Napoli on side in a fixture where they’re so heavily fancied as favourites?
It’s a tough one, but with the use of the first-to-score market on William Hill, we may see some joy. Suppose Napoli races into the lead as they have done in 9/10 home fixtures this season. As 1.17 favourites, you’d expect them to deliver as much.
If that happens and Napoli can lay a marker down and force Cremonese to seek openings to avoid defeat, the winning margin punt comes into play. By choosing the 2-4 winning margin, we’ll accept that a 5+ goal deficit loses the bet – fair play to Napoli if that happens. Otherwise, we’ll get 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, and so on in our favour for a reasonable price.
Napoli vs Cremonese Best Bet
The 1-4 scoreline in October’s meeting would’ve returned profits. Against the current bottom five at the time of writing, the 2-4 winning margin has banked in 5/6 Napoli match-ups, with a 1-0 win over Spezia the only ‘blip’.
- Selection: Napoli Score First & Napoli 2-4 Winning Margin (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.95 (William Hill)
- Stakes: 10/10
Udinese vs Sassuolo Preview
Sunday, February 12th, 11:30 (UK)
Sassuolo’s man on the left flank makes another appearance on Serie A Best Bets. Now a staple of bettingexpert’s take on Serie A each week, and rightly so, Armand Laurienté simply has to feature considering his form and the price on offer.
The 1.93 on Unibet for the former Lorient winger to hit two shots is certainly value, as is the 2.60 price you can get on bet365 for two shots and one on target against Udinese. Why so? Well, just look at his showings this season for a Sassuolo outfit that has struggled for large periods.
Wins against Atalanta and a 2-5 thumping of AC Milan at the San Siro suggests the Neroverdi aren’t exactly stuttering right now, making the thought of backing Sassuolo player shots even more appealing than before.
Udinese vs Sassuolo Best Bet
Laurienté’s 2.65 shots per90 average this season highlights what he has been bringing to Sassuolo when advancing into the final third during his 13.6 90s.
Not only has Armand Laurienté pulled the trigger in every single game this season, but he has also banked the proposed pick in 5/6 of his most recent fixtures (3, 4, 4, 1, 4 & 2).
- Selection: Armand Laurienté 2+ Shots (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.93 (Unibet)
- Stakes: 12.5/10
Sampdoria vs Inter Milan Preview
Monday, February 13th, 19:45 (UK)
Fabio Maresca takes the whistle for Inter Milan’s journey to take on Sampdoria in Genoa. The card-happy referee has continued to build on last season’s form (4.69 cards per90 from 16 apps), proving equally as fruitful for those who enjoy a cards-based punt.
In 2022/23, Maresca has overseen officiating duties in seven top-flight matches. During his Serie A showings this season, a 5.43 yellow cards per90 sum describes the official’s first half of the season better than I ever could.
The 5.43 total is split into 2.14 in the first half and 3.14 in the second 45. When playing at home, Sampdoria compliments Maresca’s second-half average with 1.80 received on average per90 and 60% of matches seeing a first-half card flashed their way.
The Sampdoria card angle could go hand in hand with another Inter-focused outcome if you think the tie will fall in their favour. Considering Sampdoria are the only side in Serie A yet to record a home victory, one they are desperate for whilst sat in 19th, it’s hard to get on board with that trend coming to a halt versus a Napoli-chasing Inter.
Sampdoria vs Inter Milan Best Bet
Sampdoria have scored only two goals from ten home matches, conceding 16 at the other end. If that continues, we may see more cards than goals for Luigi Ferrari’s lodgers. In the most recent head-to-head (3-0 Inter win), two first-half Sampdoria cards laid the foundations for a further four in the second half.
The 16 goals conceded at home for Inter’s opponents assume the door will be left ajar on more than one occasion in Genoa. Make the most of those opportunities, and Inter may see the net rustle more than once.
- Selection: Inter 2+ Goals & Sampdoria Second Half Yellow Card
- Best Odds: 1.80 (bet365)
- Stakes: 10/10
Best odds available as at 07:00 on February 10th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
More Sampdoria vs Inter Milan Tips
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