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football | Friday, February 3, 2023 1:59 PM (Revised at: Friday, February 3, 2023 2:00 PM)

Serie A Best Bets: Value Picks for Five Matches this Weekend

Serie A Best Bets: Value Picks for Five Matches this Weekend
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Serie A Best Bets: February 4th-5th

After 5/5 winning selections on the Serie A Best Bets article last weekend, Sam Ingram is back to run the rule over the top-flight schedule in Italy.

In this article:

Sassuolo vs Atalanta Preview

Saturday, February 4th, 19:45 (UK)

Since his switch from Ligue 1 side Lorient, Frenchman Armand Laurienté has grown into his role on the left of Sassuolo’s attack. Following the impressive win over AC Milan at the weekend, the Neroverdi will be hopeful they can kick on and rattle off a number of results. If they can do that, expect Lauriente to be pivotal in any success alongside the talismanic Domenico Berardi on the other wing.

The two wide outlets in green and black are among the league’s best flank pairings. Both are direct, keen to beat a man and harbour a willingness to release shots at goal as frequently as the opportunities arise. Looking at Laurienté specifically, his 2.69 shots per90 figure from 12.9 90s indicates his keenness to lay a marker down during a game.

There hasn’t been one fixture this campaign where the Frenchman has failed to shoot. With his third goal of the season coming against AC Milan from three shots, amidst his Sassuolo side potentially working their way into form, one would assume he’ll likely have a pop or two on Saturday. In Laurienté’s last five matches, he has registered 3, 4, 4, 1, & 4 shots at the opposing goal.

The 1.57 for two Laurienté shots on Unibet is value considering his output, yet in this instance, let’s go ahead and double it with one of Atalanta’s goal threats.

La Dea’s most fruitful piece of business in the summer comes in the shape of Rasmus Højlund up top. Striking similarities with a fellow Nordic goal-getter, Højlund’s long blonde hair, burley physique and play-style harp back to Manchester City’s leading man, Erling Haaland.

The Dane has been mentioned on more than one occasion in my recent articles for bettingexpert, highlighting the impressiveness of his movement in the box and on the shoulder of the last man, often dictating where Atalanta midfielders thread their next ball. Like Lauriente, a 2.92 shots per90 figure has Højlund rubbing shoulders with the league’s most potent in front of goal.

Sassuolo vs Atalanta Best Bet

In fact, two or more shots has landed in each of Højlund’s last nine (15+ minutes) fixtures whilst paying out in 7/8 Serie A starts this term.

The suggested pick was set to be a near evens punt on bet365 before Laurentè’s price dropped, so the Unibet bet builder is worlds away in terms of their offering. Considering the match shots line is around 27+ for La Dea’s trip to Sassuolo, the bookies are expecting plenty of attempts at goal – let’s hope for four in our favour.

  • Selection: Armand Laurienté and Rasmus Højlund Over 1.5 Shots Each (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 2.43 (unibet)
  • Stakes: 10/10

More Sassuolo vs Atalanta Tips

Cremonese vs Lecce Preview

Saturday, February 4th, 14:00 (UK)

Looking at the last twelve competitive matches, six apiece, Cremonese and Lecce have produced at least two goals in 11/12 outings. The 1-1 draw in Lecce, which Cremonese will feel as if they could’ve won in October, adds to the potential of at least two goals surfacing on the weekend.

Not only will Cremonese fancy their chances here, but after a season of the home side being unable to win in Serie A, Lecce will equally be licking their lips at the thought of three points on the road. In a match-up where both believe they should be winning, that usually lends itself to a more open 90 minutes with chances at both ends.

Away from Serie A, the Coppa Italia surge towards the final for Cremonese will have done them a world of good. They may not be able to boast a win in league competition, but they’ve just knocked out Napoli and Roma in successive rounds.

Mix a newfound optimism with the want to right the wrongs following the head-to-head with Lecce in October, and it may well end in the hosts’ first three-point haul of the season. At the Stadio Giovanni Zini, it’s often a frantic affair. That’s best explained in the attempts totals both for and against, with 16.20 shots against on average compared to the 13.70 forced on visiting opponents.

Cremonese vs Lecce Best Bet

Lecce will likely play their part here, too. And they’ll presumably need to in order to land the suggested pick. Scoring against each of Inter, Napoli, Roma, Fiorentina, Atalanta, and most recently, AC Milan (twice) should offer some hope in the goalscoring stakes.

Although this price has shortened through the week, the 1.77 over at William Hill still offers some value.

  • Selection: Over 2.0 Match Goals (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.77 (William Hill)
  • Stakes: 10/10

More Cremonese vs Lecce Tips

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Preview

Sunday, February 5th, 19:45 (UK)

Davide Massa is trusted with officiating duties in a raucous, blue-heavy San Siro. Two Milanese heavyweights are set to lock horns in an often heated affair geared up to distribute the city’s bragging rights come the final whistle.

With Massa in the middle, a 6.00 yellow cards per90 average is what Serie A sides have bore witness to this season. That makes the Italian official the third-most fanciful with his cards in 2022/23. So, bookings are likely to be on the agenda, as is AC Milan attempting to claw their way out of a poor stretch of form, recently topped off by a 2-5 defeat in front of their own fans at the hands of Sassuolo.

They say form goes out of the window during a derby game – a much-utilised cliché in the world of football. However, it’s certainly not ideal to be heading into a Milan derby conceding 12 goals (0-3, 4-0, 2-5) in three successive losses. Considering the first instalment of this recent losing patch was inflicted by Inter Milan in a Riyadh-hosted Supercoppa Italiana, I’d say that’s advantage to Inter.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Best Bet

One Inter Milan goal and for Simone Inzaghi’s men to avoid defeat is a handy way in here, supported by the prospect of the aforementioned bookings.

Let’s chaperone the Inter-focused start to the bet builder with both teams to get a card in the second half, an occurrence in 78% of Massa’s nine fixtures this season, and we end up at an attractive 1.83 on bet365.

  • Selection: Inter or Draw & O0.5 Inter Goals + Card Each in SH (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.83 (bet365)
  • Stakes: 10/10

More Inter Milan vs AC Milan Tips

Spezia vs Napoli Preview

Sunday, February 5th, 11:30 (UK)

The 2.90 cards received by Spezia on average during each home game this season is pipped only by AC Milan (3.20) and Sassuolo (3.11). On the other hand, Napoli opponents also receive the third-highest card count (3.10) in the league when playing away from home.

With Napoli to win at a lowly 1.36, the tall bookings numbers can prove a welcome addition to any Napoli-orientated bet builders. In this instance, taking Napoli for the win and over 1.5 goals will be complemented with one second-half card for the home side.

Marco Di Bello takes the whistle in the Liguria region’s second-largest city. His bookings figures are heavily weighted to second-half cautions, with 1.83 cards shown before the break and 3.33 brandished afterwards. If the official lives up to the current season’s form, one would expect a card to fall in Spezia’s direction, especially if they’re tumbling to defeat or under heavy Napoli pressure.

Napoli’s dominance is so apparent each weekend that their fixtures are almost a go-to for the Serie A Best Bets.

Spezia vs Napoli Best Bet

Over 1.5 goals and a Napoli win has happened in 15/20 matches, with the group from Naples averaging 2.00 goals per90 when playing away from the Diego Maradona Stadium. Notably, the 1-0 against Spezia earlier in the season was one of the five not to encourage multiple strikes.

An 86th-minute Giovanni Simeone strike got their most-recent escapade over the line against a stubborn Roma side. Eighteen matches to go and no signs of Gli Azzurri letting off – Spalletti’s Scudetto is honing in on Naples.

  • Selection: Napoli Win, Over 1.5 Match Goals & O0.5 Spezia SH Cards
  • Best Odds: 1.80 (bet365)
  • Stakes: 10/10

More Spezia vs Napoli Tips

Fiorentina vs Bologna Preview

Sunday, February 5th, 17:00 (UK)

Since the unforced winter break has come and gone in Serie A, Riccardo Orsolini has been a man possessed in this particular market. The Italian’s shot totals in 2023: 7, 5, 2, 3, 3 & 2.

Zooming out and surveying his 11 starts over the season – only once has he not his two or more shots for Bologna. Not only that, but Orsolini has registered a shot in 5/6 sub appearances, with 2+ attempts coming in three cameo showings off the bench.

At 26 years old, the once-dubbed golden boy is increasingly becoming the man to look to for a spark of creativity for Bologna, alongside Marko Arnautovic in forward areas.

I Viola concedes just shy of ten shots per90 at home, so hopefully we can see two coming from the boot of Bologna’s wide man. Alongside any attacking impetus from the right flank, we can double match shots in the game to produce an odds-against angle worth taking.

In Florence, the hosts average a tall 18.10 shots against their opponents, whilst Bologna concedes 16.89 away from home. In the hope of a bucket load of attempts from Fiorentina and for Bologna to chip in as they often do, the Over 22.5 Match Shots line looks appealing.

Fiorentina vs Bologna Best Bet

In Florence, the hosts average a tall 18.10 shots against their opponents, whilst Bologna concedes 16.89 away from home. In the hope of a bucket load of attempts from Fiorentina and for Bologna to chip in as they often do, the Over 22.5 Match Shots line looks appealing.

Couple the above with Orsolini shooting on sight and we may just have a bet.

  • Selection: Riccardo Orsolini Over 1.5 Shots & Over 22.5 Match Shots
  • Best Odds: 2.32 (Unibet)
  • Stakes: 10/10

Best odds available as at 12:05, February 3rd, 2023. Odds may now differ.

More Fiorentina vs Bologna Tips

What are Football Best Bets?

Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.

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