Serie A Best Bets: Sunday May 15th
As we head into the penultimate weekend of the Serie A season, both the title race and relegation battle are yet to be decided. With the drama looking as if it will head into the final day, I’ve got best bets for three of Sunday’s crucial matches.
Serie A Best Bets: Sunday May 15th
- Napoli vs Genoa: Napoli win and over 1.5 goals (2.15)
- Milan vs Atalanta: Under 3.5 goals & over 2 cards for Atalanta (2.20)
- Cagliari vs Inter: Inter win & Lautaro Martinez anytime goalscorer (1.95)
Serie A Treble odds: 9.23
Odds above are via bet365 as of 13:00 May 13th 2022. Odds may now differ.
Odds below are best odds available as of 13:00 May 13th 2022. Odds may now differ.
Napoli vs Genoa Best Bet
Sunday, May 15th, 14:00 (UK Time)
With their place in the top four of Serie A already confirmed, it would appear that Napoli have nothing to play for in the two remaining games of the season. However, after the Scudetto slipped out of reach in recent weeks, Napoli and their fans would love nothing more than to finish above Juventus in the final standings. With the ‘Bianconeri’ sitting four points behind, a win for Napoli would wrap up third spot – a nice bit of motivation for the home side.
Despite this, some bookmakers have priced Napoli as long as 1.80 to win on Sunday afternoon. This is presumably down to the perceived greater importance of the match for the away side, Genoa, who can’t afford to lose if they want to avoid relegation to Serie B. In any other given circumstances, the home side’s odds of victory would be a lot shorter.
Napoli have been in good goalscoring form of late, finding the net on 19 occasions in the last eight games – including a 6-1 thrashing of Sassuolo last time out at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Three of Napoli’s last four home matches also featured over 2.5 goals, something that hasn’t occurred in any of Genoa’s away games since the arrival of Alexander Blessin.
The main reason for the low frequency of goals has been Genoa’s inability to score on the road. Although they have earned creditable 0-0 draws away to Roma and Atalanta, Blessin’s side is winless in 2022 away from home and has scored just one away goal under his stewardship. Napoli haven’t kept a clean sheet at home since the start of January, but I’m not sure this will be enough to aid Genoa’s chances this weekend.
The type of performance Genoa produce on Sunday will depend heavily on Salernitana’s result (a Salernitana win means Genoa have to win). Regardless of these external factors, I believe Napoli’s quality going forward will be too strong for the visitors, and they will deliver victory in front of their expectant supporters.
- Selection: Napoli win and over 1.5 goals
- Best Odds: 2.15 (Bet365)
- Stakes: 8/10
Milan vs Atalanta Best Bet
Sunday, May 15th, 17:00 (UK Time)
Milan find themselves four points away from their first Scudetto since 2011, following another impressive away victory against Verona last weekend.
Sunday evening sees them return to the San Siro, where they host very dangerous opposition in the form of Atalanta. The away side seem to be more like their old selves after a tough start to 2022, scoring 11 goals in the four-game unbeaten run they currently boast.
However, Milan need not be too fearful of this hot streak, especially given their current defensive record at home. Stefano Pioli’s side has kept eight clean sheets in their last nine games in all competitions at the San Siro. As a result, none of Milan’s last seven home matches in Serie A have featured over 2.5 goals.
If goals can’t be guaranteed, cards probably can. Daniele Orsato will be the man in the middle for this crucial game – a referee who has averaged just over six yellow cards per match in Serie A. In his 13 domestic matches this season, Orsato has only shown less than five cards on two occasions. Whilst Milan have one the best disciplinary records at home, Atalanta average 2.6 cards per game on the road, suggesting they could fall victim to Orsato’s card-happy style.
Given the home side’s strong defensive record, I’m happy to back less than four goals in Sunday’s match. Combining this with a splattering of cards for the away side, considering Orsato’s Serie A record, makes for an attractive bet.
- Selection: Under 3.5 goals and over 2 cards for Atalanta
- Best Odds: 2.20 (Bet365)
- Stakes: 8/10
Cagliari vs Inter Best Bet
Sunday, May 15th, 19:45 (UK Time)
Inter collected their second trophy of the season on Wednesday night with an extra-time victory over Juventus in the Coppa Italia. However, there’s no time for celebration as all attention must now turn to another critical Serie A fixture on Sunday. Only a win will do as Inter attempt to retain the Scudetto and, in turn, achieve the club’s first treble since Jose Mourinho’s famous side of 2010.
With this weekend’s fixture in mind, Simone Inzaghi was able to manage the minutes of some of his key players in midweek. Most notably, first-choice striker Lautaro Martinez was substituted before extra time, meaning he looks set to start against Cagliari.
Martinez has been in excellent form recently, scoring six goals in his last six starts. In addition, his record against the sides currently residing in the bottom six of Serie A is deadly. In his nine appearances against these sides this campaign, the Argentine marksman has found the net on 10 occasions.
This will be a concern for Cagliari’s caretaker manager Alessandro Agostini, particularly because his side has managed to keep just one clean sheet at home this season. The ‘Rossoblu’ have conceded 30 goals at the Sardegna Arena, including allowing the opposition to score two or more goals in 50% of their home matches.
Considering the quality Inter have all over the pitch, I’m expecting a comfortable victory for the away side, with Lautaro Martinez adding to his superb recent record in front of goal.
- Selection: Inter win & Lautaro Martinez anytime goalscorer
- Best Odds: 2.25 (SkyBet)
- Stakes: 10/10
WHAT IS A SERIE A ACCA?
A Serie A acca is an accumulator bet, a type of bet that consists of several selections across different matches that are combined together into one single bet. An acca usually. consists of at least four selections but many more can be included. There will be odds for the single bet as a whole which is calculated by multiplying the odds of all of the selections. A Serie A acca is one of the most popular ways to bet. This is the case because they can create potentially massive odds for a small stake. Many punters choose to create Serie A accas which is what we have created here. If one of these selections loses then the Serie A acca will lose. This type of bet needs every selection to win in order to succeed.