The Cards Column Tips: End-of-season tension brings cards

Matt Kirby enjoyed two winning match picks from the Championship last weekend. He’s back to preview the best cards and bookings tips from the Premier League and EFL. Leagues One and Two wrap up with the final round of fixtures.

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In this article:

• Nottingham Forest vs Man City: Both Teams to Receive 2+ Cards
• Huddersfield vs Birmingham: Jay Stansfield To Be Booked
• Barnsley vs Northampton: Barnsley Most Booking Points

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Oliver on derby day + Ben to set the tone

After being called up to the Euros in the summer, Michael Oliver will take charge of a huge north London derby. Simon Hooper has Man City’s trip to Nottingham Forest – he’s not a Luton fan – while talking of the Hatters, their game at Wolves is overseen by David Coote.

In the Championship, Leicester are on the verge of promotion. Their Monday night visit to Preston has Sam Allison in charge. Andrew Kitchen has Ipswich’s game at Hull, while Select Group 1 ref Darren Bond kicks things off when Leeds go to QPR.

Ben Toner is tasked with Derby’s home game with already-relegated Carlisle in League One. The Rams need a point to seal promotion. Bobby Madley drops down to the third tier for a tasty game between Peterborough and Bolton. The hosts will have to settle for a play-off spot.

Colchester hosts Crewe in League Two, where a mutually beneficial draw would see the U’s stay up and Alex seal a play-off spot. Lewis Smith has the whistle in Essex. Doncaster have been on an incredible run. Rovers visit Gillingham with Alex Chilowicz in charge.

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Nottingham Forest vs Man City: Hooper to upset Forest fans

England, Premier League, Sunday, April 28th, 16:30 (UK)

I’m writing this as Man City are in action at Brighton. By the end of Thursday, Pep Guardiola’s side will be within a point of leaders Arsenal – they’re cruising at 3-0 up before the break. 

The Sky Blues travel to Nottingham Forest in Sunday’s late game, which is my first port of call. I’m just wondering if that’s enough rest time to turn around a multi-million squad, Pep?

The title race now looks like a two-horse race between City and Arsenal, while Nottingham Forest are battling against relegation, as well as the PGMOL.

When these two faced each other at the Etihad in September, it went off big time. The referee that day was Anthony Taylor and he had his hands full. The 90 minutes produced 10 yellows and a red with Rodri getting his marching orders.

I’m hoping some of that bad blood remains, and after that saw a 5-7 cards split, I’ll have a look at a similar pattern here by going with both teams to receive 2+ cards at 2.38 with bet365.

If fatigue does set in, City could resort to tactical fouls, although they do plenty of that already. There are enough players in this City side to pick up a card, while Forest average 2.3 for the season and draw 2.4 cautions from their opponents here at the City Ground.

Simon Hooper is in charge. A man who managed to show two cards to each team in Tuesday’s one-sided Arsenal-Chelsea match. The whistler has shown 4+ cards in 19 of his 26 league middles and has produced two each in 15. His splits seem pretty even, which is key to this bet.

Hooper’s sole Man City Premier League game came when they hosted Spurs, where he should eight yellows – four each. While just a few weeks ago he oversaw Forest’s trip to the Lilywhites. There were six cards in that, with a 2-4 split in Forest’s favour. 

A hostile City Ground atmosphere that will be on the back of the referee after last weekend’s events. Two sides with plenty to play for and with some potential tension leads me to take cards in this one.

• Selection: Both Teams to Receive 2+ Cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.38
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

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Jay Stansfield To Be Booked: Stans-field’s the man

England, Championship, Saturday, April 27th, 15:00 (UK)

I just cannot avoid the big game at the bottom of the Championship, where Huddersfield host Birmingham. If the Terriers fall to defeat then you have to feel it will be League One football next season, as they have to go to Ipswich on the final day of the campaign.

If you put me on the spot and asked me for which way I’d lean, I’d have to side with the Blues. Yes, they were held to a goalless draw by rock-bottom Rotherham last weekend, but that’s three clean sheets in five, and they look solid under Gary Rowett.

The same can’t be said about Huddersfield. They folded tamely in the last 15 minutes against Swansea last Saturday, meaning they’ve conceded nine goals in their last three. That late draw at Bristol City has knocked the wind out of their sails.

But, we’re here for cards. And given what’s at stake, the focus will be on Matt Donohue to keep a lid on things. Over this season, he’s averaging 4.2 cards per game. I’ve found him to be a bit of an up-and-down issuer, unlike previous seasons where he’s been reliable. 

He’s done plenty of Huddersfield games. Those have produced 2, 2, 5, 2, 4 & 5. Albeit that most recent five was in their defeat at Cardiff, where it was the Bluebirds who picked up the bulk of the cards (4-1).

Now, Donohue’s Birmingham games have seen him kept fairly busy in contrast. The trio have had 5, 8 & 3. That’s 16 in total, with players in blue shirts picking up half of them.

One Birmingham player has seen a card in two of those three games involving Donohue. That’s forward Jay Stansfield. He’s scored 12 goals and is only one yellow away from matching that tally, quite incredible.

Stansfield has put up plenty of fight through the season, including being carded in each of his last two. He’s also committed multiple fouls in five of his last nine starts.

He played more of an attacking midfield role when Donohue gave three fouls against him, and the card, against Swansea in September to put some fuel to the fire.

As does the fact is he’s a little troublemaker. He got booked for his pro-Exeter celebration after scoring at Plymouth. And if he does score here, especially if it’s a late goal to put the visitors in front, he’ll be in the away end or the shirt will come off.

He seems like he can be a volatile character, which also aids our case. Especially when you weigh up the physicality of this Huddersfield backline.

My final two comments on this are:

• I’ve backed Stansfield to score and be booked at 14.00 with bet 365.
• Lee Nicholls knows every trick in the book to waste time. So, if the hosts take the lead, expect to see him have his name taken.

I’ll put the 3.50 price up with bet365 as if he doesn’t start you’ve got some cover. But I will point out that if you’ve got a Bet Victor account, they’ve opened up at 4.33. 

• Selection: Jay Stansfield to be Booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

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Barnsley vs Northampton: Tense Tykes have to get stuck in

England, League One, Saturday, April 27th, 12:30 (UK)

League One and Two are heading into the off-season, so there’s a good chance there are some games that see no cards. One to see if any markets open up!

However, Barnsley, Lincoln and Oxford are battling it out for two spots in the top six. So, one of those trio will miss out on the play-off rollercoaster. With these three facing teams who have nothing to play for it’s worth looking at them to collect the most booking points with Sky Bet.

Of the three, I’m going to take Barnsley are 2.63 to do just that when they welcome Northampton to Oakwell at 12:30 on Saturday.

The Tykes have only collected more booking points than the visitors to Yorkshire in nine games. But Northampton sit 14th and are basically on the beach. 

With Barnsley likely to need a positive result to guarantee their play-off place, they’re the ones who will have to press and get stuck in. And after a run of five games without a win, they took drastic action to sack Neill Collins after the Blackpool defeat.

Over the season, the Cobblers average 1.6 cards per game  – only Peterborough average fewer at 1.4. To see the visitors – I’ll repeat – with nothing to play for, as the 2.00 favourites to collect the most booking points is somewhat surprising.

Barnsley average 2 per game at Oakwell, and 2.2 over the whole campaign, which makes me feel there’s a bit of juice in this 2.38 price on the home side. 

There’s little between them in terms of fouls, but there’s no reason for Northampton to go full pelt here, unlike Barnsley. Plus, if the Cobblers take the lead, we could get some headloss from the players in red shirts. 

Interestingly, we have a referee in Ollie Yates who has shown 20+ booking points to the home side in 71% of his games. That’s slightly higher than his 65% going to the away side, which shows he’s not afraid of upsetting the crowd.

Yates’ sole Barnsley game saw him show seven yellows – five went to Tykes players. So, that would have been a 50-20 booking points split in our favour if we’d played this bet then. 

The final piece of the jigsaw was the reverse fixture. All four cards went to Barnsley players – a 0-40 booking points outcome. So, everything to me points to this angle, especially with the hosts at a bigger price and having much more at stake.

• Selection: Barnsley Most Booking Points
• Best Odds: 2.63
• Bookmaker: SkyBet 
• Stake: 10/10

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