football | Wednesday, July 27, 2022 12:12 PM (Revised at: Thursday, July 28, 2022 12:54 PM)

Tom Winch’s Best Outright Bets 2022/23 - Value Picks in the Premier League and Serie A

Tom Winch

Spurs, Nottingham Forest and Ciro Immobile are included in Tom Winch’s go-to outright bets for the upcoming season. Conte and Spurs set to be an exciting watch with Forest aiming to get over the line. Over in Italy, Ciro Immobile looks to obtain the Capocannoniere award in back-to-back seasons in Serie A.

In this article:

Tottenham Outright Bet Tip
Nottingham Forest Outright Bet Tip
Ciro Immobile Outright Bet Tip

All odds quoted are the best odds available as at 10:00 on July 27th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Conte’s Spurs to Continue Scoring Streak

The North London club have been rather busy in the transfer window over the summer. They’ve added defensive stability in Barcelona’s Clement Lenglet and a right-sided full-back in Djed Spence who impressed whilst playing in the Championship last season.

Alongside the quality of Harry Kane and fan favourite Heung-Min Son, Antonio Conte hasn’t slowed down business in the attacking side of the field with 25-year-old Richarlison joining the club. The experienced Ivan Perisic was also snapped up on a free and is more than capable of getting himself on the scoresheet.

Dejan Kulusevski is set to remain at the club for the season which is a big bonus. The young Swedish international notched up a combined 13 goals and assists in just 18 appearances last time out. He may become vital in terms of rotation as Tottenham will be playing Champions League football.

75 goals may seem a tough ask from Spurs but it’s evident that they should be pushing for greater things in the upcoming season, Harry Kane and Son scored 40 between them in the 2021/2022 campaign alone, you’d like to think the pair will be hitting similar numbers once again.

Antonio Conte will not settle for anything less than 100% from his players, the Italian has more options to work with this season ahead after spending well. His side ended the Premier League season in impressive goalscoring form with 38 goals coming within the last 15 matches and he’ll be looking for a repeat heading into the upcoming campaign.

Averaging slightly under two goals per game is certainly achievable from Spurs. They have quality players in attack. The fans will be going into the new season optimistic with arguably their strongest squad in years. Kane and Son will likely provide a hefty tally but Richarlison and co will provide adequate support up front.

Selection: Tottenham to reach 75 Premier League Goals (TRACKED TIP)
Odds: 2.20
Bookmaker: SkyBet
Stakes: 8/10

Forest To Hand Around, just…

The newly promoted Premier League sides are often backed to go straight back down as the difference in class and sometimes transfer budget can be a little too overwhelming but Nottingham Forest will be desperate to stick around after a lengthy time away from the top flight.

Steve Cooper has done a tremendous job at the City Ground. He took over early on in the previous season which saw his side win the play-offs at Wembley in May. The fans are huge admirers of their manager and will be right behind him and his players as they look to take on the toughest league in the world.

The club have spent reasonably well so far with the standout being Nigerian forward Taiwo Awoniyi from Union Berlin in Germany, the 24-year-old scored 15 times in 31 Bundesliga appearances in the previous campaign. Moussa Niakhate has also left the German top flight to join the newly promoted side, the central defender was a regular starter at Mainz in the four consecutive seasons he was there.

Neco Williams, Dean Henderson and Jesse Lingard are the more familiar names joining the club. All three players have experience playing in the division which is hugely important. Lingard can be influential on his day and will be looking to get his career back on track after a disappointing season.

Former Huddersfield duo Harry Toffolo and Lewis O’Brien have also been snapped up after impressive seasons where they both appeared in almost every league match in the Championship.

A total of 35 points will be a challenge for sure for Forest. But with plenty of stability in the defensive line, they could be a tricky side to break down. Brennan Johnson had an excellent season last campaign. He scored 18 times and the young Welshman will relish being in the top flight for the first time.

The price of 1.91 for Forest to accumulate 35 points seems fair. With that tally, they should be hopeful in staying up based on previous Premier League seasons. Alternatively, 1.66 is the price being offered for them to avoid the drop so it makes a lot more sense to select the bigger price.

Alongside fellow newcomers Bournemouth and Fulham there are a handful of other Premier League clubs who may also struggle and be right at the foot of the table for large parts of the season.

The City Ground proved to be a fortress in 2022, Forest were unbeaten in the league and also knocked out Arsenal and Leicester in the FA Cup. They did lose narrowly to Liverpool in the same competition after putting up a resilient display.

With the signings, a well-liked manager, an intimidating stadium and the first time back in the Premier League Forest have an exciting season ahead, it will be tough but I’m happy to get behind them in reaching 35 or more points.

Selection: Nottingham Forest to reach 35 Premier League Points (TRACKED TIP)
Odds: 1.91
Bookmaker: SkyBet
Stakes: 9/10

Ciro to Bang in the Goals Once Again

Ciro Immobile has been scoring consistently for Lazio ever since he joined in 2016. The 32-year-old has notched 20+ in five seasons from six and is 7.00 to achieve what he managed last season in Serie A.

In his 208 matches since his arrival, Ciro has scored 150 goals. He won the golden boot in the 2021/2022 season, 2019/2020 season and was the joint-winner in the 2017/2018 campaign.

His record speaks for itself. However, he is rarely spoken about as a world class striker which could be due to playing for Lazio who have finished 4th just once since he joined the club.

The Italian is third in the market for the golden boot behind Romelu Lukaku and Dusan Vlahovic who are both around the 5.00 range which is somewhat understandable given who they play for.

Lazio scored the second highest number of goals last campaign only a handful behind runners-up Inter, they conceded the most goals of sides who finished in the top eight so that shows they have to often out-score their opponents to earn the points.

With Romelu Lukaku making his return to Italy with Inter, he will most likely be Immobile’s closest competitor. Although with Lautaro Martinez having his best goal-scoring season to date he’ll be wanting to remain the club’s go-to man for goals.

The Champions League could also prove to be a decisive factor. Juventus, Napoli and both Milan clubs enter the competition which could allow some rotation during the season. Lazio themselves will be competing in the Europa League just as they did last season.

The price of 7.00 for Immobile to outscore everyone else definitely caught the eye based on his goals-to-game ratio and tremendous consistency. He is also the penalty taker for the club which is always an added bonus when backing a goalscorer market.

It’s also worth mentioning how few games he misses in Serie A. Immobile has missed just 20 matches across the last six seasons. He has played in 31 or more games from 38 in every campaign. That makes this a value bet.