football | Monday, November 28, 2022 9:12 AM (Revised at: Monday, November 28, 2022 10:07 PM)

What Were the Odds of That?: Round 2, World Cup 2022

Andrew Brocker

We’re now two rounds down in the group stage of the 2022 World Cup. A number of groups are down to two, a few groups are wide open and at least one team, Canada, is going home. Yes, Qatar are eliminated too, but you know, they’re home already.

In this article:

World Cup Winner Odds Movement
Group & Qualification Odds Movement
World Cup Round 2 Betting Results

The Shock Results Continue

The opening round saw two of the biggest upsets in World Cup history unfold with Saudi Arabia defeat Argentina and Japan defeating Germany. The shoe was on the other foot in round two, when Costa Rica caused a surprise defeating Japan 1-0. Costa Rica entered the match at a best price of 7.90 to get the win.

Later that day, Morocco firmed in qualification betting when they upset Belgium 2-0. Morocco were a best price of 4.90 to get the victory with Belgium’s hopes of qualification now in serious jeopardy as they head into their final group match against Croatia.

Favourites

France, Argentina and Brazil each took care of business in round two, firming at the front of the outright winner market.

England stumbled against the USA, but remain at short odds to top their group while the Netherlands were less than inspiring in their 1-1 draw with Ecuador.

Meanwhile Belgium are on the brink of elimination following their 2-0 loss to Morocco. Germany worked their way back into the title race thanks to their draw with Spain with a little help from Costa Rica’s win over Japan.

Enough Goals For You?

The run of 0-0 results in the opening round was widely deplored. The second round fixed that right up. There were a total of 40 goals in the second round with England’s 0-0 draw with the USA the only result that went without a goal. The round concluded with a wild final match day that saw 11 goals scored in the opening two matches, with Serbia surrendering a two goal lead to draw 3-3 with Cameroon before Ghana and South Korea played a thrilling 3-2 result.

World Cup Winner Odds Movement

Brazil remains favourites now in at odds of 3.50 to win the 2022 World Cup. France have bet clipped into odds of 6.75 having begun the tournament at odds of 10.0 while Spain and Argentina consolidate in third and fourth respectively.

Germany rebounded and are back into contention having drifted out as much as odds of 31.0 following their opening round loss to Japan while England drift out to odds of 11.0 following their scoreless draw with the USA, having been as short as 8.0 following their opening round route of Iran.

With their qualification assured, Portugal are into odds of 13.0 while the Netherlands drift to odds of 18.0 after two uninspiring performances. Elsewhere, Belgium on the brink of eliminated are out to a price of 81.0 while Denmark, needing a win over Australia to progress are likewise at odds of 81.0.

Of the pretournament long shots, Morocco is the only to see their odds clipped, now into odds of 151.0 having begun the tournament at odds of 351.0

NATION	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Brazil	4.50	3.50
France	10.00	6.75
Spain	11.00	8.00
Argentina	7.00	9.50
England	11.50	11.00
Portugal	17.00	13.00
Germany	13.00	14.00
Netherlands	15.00	18.00
Croatia	67.00	67.00
Belgium	21.00	81.00
Denmark	31.00	81.00
Ecuador	301.00	126.00
Switzerland	126.00	126.00
Uruguay	42.00	126.00
Morocco	351.00	151.00
Serbia	121.00	210.00
USA	226.00	230.00
Poland	280.00	251.00
Senegal	161.00	426.00
Ghana	751.00	501.00
Iran	501.00	501.00
Japan	501.00	651.00
Mexico	201.00	751.00
Australia	501.00	1001.00
South Korea	551.00	1001.00
Saudi Arabia	1001.00	1501.00
Cameroon	651.00	2001.00
Wales	276.00	2001.00
Costa Rica	1001.00	2501.00
Tunisia	1001.00	2501.00
Canada	501.00	ELIMINATED
Qatar	501.00	ELIMINATED

Group & Qualification Odds Movement

So which teams have firmed in group betting? Who finds their World Cup campaigns in jeopardy? Let’s take a look at the shape of group and qualification betting following the opening round of the group stage.

All odds are best odds available as at 10pm, 28th November 2022. Odds may now differ.

Group A

The Netherlands remain favoured to win Group A, despite two uninspiring performances. The 1-1 with Ecuador leaves the door open for Ecuador to snatch top spot in the group in the final round when they face Senegal. Qatar have been eliminated from contention.

Win Group A	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Netherlands	1.53	1.29
Ecuador	7.00	5.20
Senegal	6.50	16.0
Qatar	19.50	ELIMINATED

With their final group match a meeting with Qatar, the Netherlands should do enough to earn qualification for the knockout stage while Ecuador will do battle to see who joins the Dutch in the next phase of the tournament. Ecuador are currently slight favourites to win the match.

Group A qualification scenarios from FIFA.com

Netherlands need to win or draw to qualify. They will still qualify if they lose, provided Ecuador beat Senegal.
Ecuador need to win or draw to qualify. They remain in contention to qualify if they lose and Qatar beat Netherlands.
Senegal need to win to qualify but remain in contention if they draw and Qatar beat Netherlands.
Qatar are eliminated.

Qualify Group A	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Netherlands	1.13	1.01
Ecuador	2.20	1.40
Senegal	2.00	3.00
Qatar	4.50	ELIMINATED

Group B

England remain firm favourites to win Group B despite their 0-0 draw with the USA. The result gives the USA a slight chance to top the group heading into the final match day, while their opponents, Iran are likewise still in with a sniff should they win and Wales topple England.

Win Group B	Starting Odds	Current Odds
England	1.44	1.17
USA	6.50	14.0
Iran	17.00	21.0
Wales	7.00	1001.0

England are all but certain to move on to the knockout stage while USA, Iran and Wales all remain in contention. Iran will meet the USA, with the result set to determine who will join England in the knockout stage. Wales remain outside chances, needing a victory over England to keep their hopes alive.

Group B qualification scenarios from FIFA.com

England will qualify with a win or draw. Depending on goal difference, the Three Lions could also make it through in defeat.
Wales must win to have any chance of progressing.
Iran are guaranteed to progress if they beat USA. A draw will also take the Iranians through provided Wales do not beat England (in which case goal difference will come into play).
For USA, it’s simple: win and they are through. Lose or draw and they will be heading home.

Qualify Group B	Starting Odds	Current Odds
England	1.12	1.01
USA	2.10	2.0
Iran	4.33	2.0
Wales	2.38	26.0

Group C

Argentina’s win over Mexico keeps them favoured to win Group C, heading into their final matchday meeting with Poland, while Saudi Arabia remain in contention despite their loss to Poland in the second round of group play.

Win Group C	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Argentina	1.40	1.50
Poland	7.00	3.20
Saudi Arabia	34.00	21.0
Mexico	6.75	ELIMINATED

Argentina cannot take the foot of the gas just yet. Heading into their final group match with Poland, Argentina are at odds of 1.20 to earn qualification, while Poland remain favoured over both Mexico and Saudi Arabia. Group C looks to be one of the more intriguing groups heading into the final round of group action.

Group C qualification scenarios from FIFA.com

Poland will be through with a win or a draw, but would be knocked out by a defeat coupled with a Saudi Arabia victory. If Poland lose and Saudi Arabia draw, the two teams will have to be separated by goal difference. If Poland lose and Mexico win, their fate will also be decided on goal difference.
Argentina must win to be sure of progressing, while a draw would be enough if Mexico and Saudi Arabia also draw. However, a draw coupled with a Saudi Arabia victory would see La Albiceleste knocked out, and a draw coupled with a Mexico win takes the group to goal difference. Argentina are out if they lose.
Saudi Arabia will reach the Round of 16 if they win. A draw would be enough if Poland defeat Argentina, but if both matches are tied, they will go out. Should Argentina defeat Poland and Saudi Arabia draw, progress will be decided on goal difference between the European and Middle East sides. Defeat would see them knocked out.
Mexico must win to have any chance of staying in the competition. They will be sure to go through if Poland win. If they win and Argentina and Poland draw, it will come down to goal difference with Argentina. Should Argentina win, goal difference will be required to separate Mexico and Poland.

Qualify Group C	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Argentina	1.09	1.20
Poland	2.00	1.40
Saudi Arabia	8.00	3.75
Mexico	1.91	4.0

Group D

France began the tournament favoured to win the group, and have fulfilled the task heading into the final round of the group thanks to their 2-1 win over Denmark in the second round.

Win Group D	Starting Odds	Current Odds
France	1.58	WON
Denmark	3.25	ELIMINATED
Tunisia	21.00	ELIMINATED
Australia	26.00	ELIMINATED

Winning the group, France are through to the knockout stage of the tournament. Meanwhile, Denmark will face Australia on Wednesday with the Danes needing nothing less than a win to earn their way through to the next phase of the tournament. Despite their loss to Australia, Tunisia remain with slim chances of reaching the knockout stage.

Group D qualification scenarios from FIFA.com

France are already qualified and will top the group unless they lose to Tunisia and Australia beat Denmark, which would leave them tied on six points with the Socceroos.
Victory will see Australia qualify, while a draw would be enough unless Tunisia beat France, which would see the North African side go through on goal difference.
Denmark must win against Australia and, if they do so, will be certain to qualify unless Tunisia beat France, which would leave them tied on four points with the Carthage Eagles.
Tunisia must beat France and hope Denmark avoid defeat by Australia to be in contention to qualify.

Qualify Group D	Starting Odds	Current Odds
France	1.10	QUALIFIED
Denmark	1.36	1.54
Australia	6.00	3.0
Tunisia	5.50	41.0

Group E

Spain remain at short odds to win Group E, coming off their 1-1 draw with Germany. Japan remain a chance to top the group despite their loss to Costa Rica in the second round of the tournament, while both Germany and Costa Rica will need things to fall their way to win Group E.

Win Group E	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Spain	2.02	1.11
Japan	15.00	9.0
Costa Rica	70.00	126.0
Germany	2.20	ELIMINATED

Japan’s loss to Costa Rica revived German hopes of knockout stage qualification. And following their draw with Spain, Germany are now at odds of 1.29 to earn a place in the next stage of the tournament, having gone into the day at odds of 2.80 to reach the knockout stage.

Group E qualification scenarios from FIFA.com

Spain will qualify for the Round of 16 with a win or a draw. Defeat to Japan will leave them relying on their currently superior goal difference to progress, unless Costa Rica beat Germany, in which case Luis Enrique’s side will be out.
Japan can go through with victory against Spain, while a draw, coupled with deadlock in the Costa Rica v Germany clash, will ensure they progress. They will go out if they are beaten by Spain, or if the match ends in a draw and Costa Rica triumph against Germany. Goal difference will be required to decide their fate if they draw and Germany are victorious.
Costa Rica can reach the last 16 by defeating Germany. A draw for Luis Fernando Suarez’s side would also guarantee a spot in the next phase if Spain overcome Japan, but if the current group leaders are beaten then goal difference comes into play. A draw in both games or a defeat for Costa Rica puts them out.
Germany must pick up three points to stay in contention. Victory over Costa Rica coupled with a win for Spain against Japan will see them qualify. A draw between Luis Enrique’s side and the Samurai Blue, or a win for Japan, would take the equation to goal difference. All other results would see Hansi Flick’s men out of the competition.

Qualify Group E	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Spain	1.13	1.01
Germany	1.17	1.25
Japan	4.33	8.0
Costa Rica	15.00	10.0

Group F

It’s all gone pear shaped for Belgium. Having headed into the tournament at shorter than even money to top the group, Belgium are now at 4.50 to do so, while Croatia firm to near even money following their victory over Canada.

Win Group F	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Croatia	3.25	2.04
Morocco	11.00	3.25
Belgium	1.85	4.50
Canada	14.50	ELIMINATED

Belgium are set to be the biggest busts of the tournament, having begun at odds 1.20 to earn knockout stage qualification. They are now at odds 2.50 to dos, with Croatia and Morocco at short odds.

Group F qualification scenarios from FIFA.com

Croatia are through if they win or draw. Defeat would leave them needing eliminated Canada to overcome Morocco, in which case goal difference would be required to separate Zlatko Dalic’s side from the Atlas Lions.
Morocco are through if they win or draw. Defeat would leave them needing Belgium to overcome Croatia, in which case goal difference would be required to determine if they or the 2018 runners-up progress to the last 16.
Belgium will qualify for the Round of 16 with victory over Croatia. Defeat will see them knocked out. A draw will only be enough if Morocco are beaten by Canada, with goal difference then set to determine where Roberto Martinez’s side and Walid Regragui’s outfit finish in Group F.
Canada are already eliminated after losing their opening two fixtures.

Qualify Group F	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Morocco	3.20	1.11
Croatia	1.53	1.33
Belgium	1.20	2.50
Canada	4.25	ELIMINATED

Group G

Brazil all but claim top spot in Group G following their 1-0 victory over Switzerland. Early in the day, Serbia conceded a 3-1 lead to Cameroon, with the match ending in a rollicking 3-3 draw.

Win Group G	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Brazil	1.40	1.001
Switzerland	7.60	101.0
Serbia	7.50	ELIMINATED
Cameroon	30.00	ELIMINATED

The final qualification spot in Group G will be decided when Switzerland and Serbia face in the final round of the group stage. Serbia will enter the match as slight favourites need to win.

Group G qualification scenarios from FIFA.com

Qualify Group G	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Brazil	1.10	QUALIFIED
Switzerland	2.25	1.62
Serbia	2.10	2.60
Cameroon	5.00	30.0

Group H

Portugal have done everything but officially claim 1st place in Group H following their win over Uruguay. Ghana can technically still claim the group, but are at the long odds of 67.0 to do so.

Win Group H	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Portugal	1.74	1.002
Ghana	17.00	67.0
Uruguay	3.00	ELIMINATED
South Korea	13.00	ELIMINATED

Portugal are through to the knockout stage, while Uruguay and Ghana will meet in the final match of group play with the result set to determine who will join Portugal from the group in the next stage of the tournament. South Korea will need a win over Portugal and results to go their way to feature in the knockout stage.

Group H qualification scenarios from FIFA.com