Why Bournemouth are the Value Bet in the FA Cup

Bournemouth have been impressive in the Premier League this season and the FA Cup gives them the chance to win the first ever major trophy in the club’s history.

Manchester City are the favourites to win the competition but the Cherries look to be the value bet thanks to their superb underlying data. Scott Thornton crunches the numbers and evaluates their chances of lifting the famous trophy.  

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Bournemouth’s Exceptional Underlying Numbers

The Bournemouth board took a gamble ahead of the 2023/24 campaign when they sacked Gary O’Neil, the man who kept them in the Premier League in the previous season, to bring in Andoni Iraola. The Spaniard had done an excellent job with Rayo Vallecano but had no experience in England. The manager endured a tough start in his new role, failing to win any of his first nine matches in charge, but the club have been trending upwards ever since that dismal run ended. 

Iraola has successfully implemented his style at Bournemouth. His team press intensely, forcing turnovers high up the pitch and making it difficult for their opponents to play out from the back. The focus with the ball is on incisive vertical passing, which helps them create a wealth of opportunities. With the Cherries looking like a well-oiled machine, it’s no surprise that they’re doing well but the underlying data paints an even prettier picture. 

Despite the defeat against Brighton, Bournemouth’s stats are impressive. They have lost just three of their last 15 Premier League outings thanks to their extraordinary creative output. Their xG of 55.16 is the highest in the division. Injuries in forward areas have meant that their chance conversion hasn’t been as good as the manager would have liked. The Cherries are on of the biggest xG underperformers in England’s top flight. However, with several of the pre-tournament favourites already dumped out of the FA Cup, Iraola’s men could have what it takes to win it. 

Liverpool and Arsenal are the only teams in the Premier League who have rank above Bournemouth on xPTS (expected points), both of whom have already been eliminated. Manchester City are the favourites to lift the trophy but Pep Guardiola’s side have looked a shadow of their former selves this term. The Cherries have already beaten City this season. Manchester United, the holders of the FA Cup, have struggled under Amorim. The new Red Devils’ boss has been unable to turn the tide and the club are on course for their worst ever Premier League finish. The underperformance of these English heavyweights leaves the door open for the Cherries.

Kluivert Can Fire His Team to Glory

Next up for Bournemouth are Wolves. Vitor Pereira’s side are embroiled in a relegation battle in the Premier League. While they will fancy their chances of survival, they are most certainly the underdogs when they rock up to the Vitality Stadium this weekend. Wolves did manage to beat the Cherries 1-0 at this ground in February but Illia Zabarynyi’s red card with the scores level was a major factor. Bournemouth secured an emphatic 4-2 victory in the reverse fixture, finishing the game with 2.83 more xG than their opponents. 

Justin Kluivert netted two goals in Bournemouth’s last win over Wolves. The Dutchman has been crucial in attack, particularly with Enes Ünal and Evanilson out injured. He is their top scorer in the Premier League, netting a total of 12 goals from an xG of 2.38. If Kluivert continues to be clinical and show cutting edge, we could be talking about a first major trophy for the Cherries come the end of the season. 

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