As November nears, RB Leipzig sit tied with Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga table, a scenario that opens up intriguing opportunities in the outright betting markets. With their Champions League hopes dimming, Leipzig’s primary focus is set to shift to domestic success—a strategic move that might give them an edge.
Prioritising the Bundesliga
Facing tough defeats against Atletico Madrid, Juventus, and Liverpool, Leipzig’s Champions League campaign is on shaky ground. A prolonged European run looks less likely, which could inadvertently boost their Bundesliga prospects. Focusing on the league could allow them to fully commit to keeping pace with Bayern, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, and other top contenders.
Leipzig’s domestic schedule will get tougher in the coming weeks, with high-stakes matches against Dortmund, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Bayern all before Christmas. However, they’ve proven themselves against top Bundesliga teams in recent seasons. Leipzig have won their last three clashes with Dortmund, including two at Signal Iduna Park, and they’ve only lost once in their last five meetings with Bayern. A recent victory over Leverkusen further demonstrates they can handle the Bundesliga’s biggest challenges.
Leipzig’s Betting Potential
Currently priced at 11.00 to win the Bundesliga, Leipzig offers tempting odds. Despite ranking fifth in expected goal difference, they’ve capitalised on points thanks to opponents’ poor finishing and goalkeeper Péter Gulácsi’s stellar shot-stopping. Gulácsi has outperformed his post-shot expected goals consistently, a key factor that’s sustainable given his track record.
In attack, Leipzig has firepower with Lois Openda, Xavi Simons, Benjamin Sesko, and Antonio Nusa. While more consistent chance creation would add confidence, their forward line certainly has the quality to sustain a title push.
If overtaking Bayern directly seems too ambitious, consider the 4.33 odds for Leipzig to win the league excluding Bayern. Bayer Leverkusen, another close rival, has higher expected goals but has already dropped points in five matches, and Champions League demands may stretch their squad further.
Upcoming Fixtures and Shortening Odds
Leipzig’s outright odds could shorten in the coming weeks, especially with the imminent clash against Dortmund. A positive result will solidify their place as Bayern’s biggest domestic threat, but even a loss could open value opportunities in top-four betting.
This season, Die Roten Bullen are a team to watch in the outright markets. Their campaign may not replicate Leverkusen’s surprise title push last season, but with Bayern showing weaknesses under Vincent Kompany, Leipzig could be primed for something special. Betting on Leipzig now, while their odds are favourable, could pay dividends as they navigate the Bundesliga’s biggest challenges.
