tennis | Tuesday, December 20, 2022 11:22 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, December 20, 2022 11:29 AM)

2023 Men’s Australian Open Futures Analysis and Best Bet

Jon Reid

2023 Men’s Australian Open Futures Analysis and Best Bet: Tuesday, December 20th

We ended the 2022 season on a winning note, as Clara Tauson got it done in her match on Friday against Lucia Bronzetti. After a dreadful 0-5 week in Angers, we bounce back with a 4-1 week on writeups in Limoges to avoid a nasty December.

For the next few days, professional tour-level tennis takes a short break, so we’ll look into a variety of futures. From Grand Slam bets, to season-long wagers, I’ll be going through some of the most enticing prices on the board in the next few days’ articles.

To start, we take a look at the prices for the men’s singles portion of the Australian Open, which kicks off in just under a month’s time and wraps up around the end of January.

In this article:

2023 Men’s Australian Open Preview
2023 Men’s Australian Open Best Bet

2023 Men’s Australian Open Preview

January 16th to January 29th

A few caveats before delving into some of the more enticing numbers on the board for the men’s draw. First, it’s worth noting that while outrights can provide value, the hold from the bookmakers can be higher, and with the time frame being longer, you not only have to lock your money up longer (there’s an opportunity cost associated with that), but the potential for injuries and other variables to derail your bet are also present. In short, there can be value to attack, but it’s worth considering adjusting one’s stakes accordingly.

Now, for the previews! Can’t start anywhere other than the greatest to have ever played the sport, Novak Djokovic. The Serbian titan of the game makes his return to Australia after going through an absolute ordeal a year ago, and he’ll look to become the first ever man to win 10 singles titles down under.

Along with Wimbledon, it has been his most successful grand slam, and it makes total sense as to why. Played in the Australian summer on courts that tend to play on the quicker side of things, Djokovic’s elite return game stands out even more. In a sport dominated on serve, the ability to find breaks becomes more valuable in conditions like those found in Australia, and no one does it like Nole on hard courts. Combined with his much-improved serve and elite athleticism, one has to wonder how on earth someone can be expected to take him down in a best-of-five set format.

At odds of 2.10 to win an entire event, many will be put off such a low price. I’d counter by asking if Djokovic really isn’t expected to win this 50% of the time? He’s playing as well as he ever has, he’s won it nine times to date, his serve is better than it’s ever been and the return game is still top-shelf stuff. From a narrative standpoint, you know he’ll be looking to prove a point after enduring last year’s fiasco to boot. Finally, I just don’t see who stops him.

Rafael Nadal won it last year for the first time in 13 years (again, with Djokovic absent from the event and he was down two sets to Medvedev in the final). Medvedev prefers quick courts, but looked pretty poor throughout much of 2022. Carlos Alcaraz missed the year-end finals and then looked awful in an offseason tune up and is far from being favoured to beat someone like Djokovic at the moment.

For me, 2.10 may not present value in a futures market often, but in this case, I’m happy to take a price over evens to back Djokovic in Melbourne.

2023 Men’s Australian Open Best Bet

January 16th to January 29th

As for other potential bets, I do think there are a few players set up for success in these conditions. We want to look for players with big serves, good power from the baseline and the athletic makeup to be able to win several best-of-five set matches in a two-week period.

For my money, those two players are Nick Kyrgios – who showed the tennis world in 2022, that when he plays, he’s a top-5 talent – and Felix Auger Aliassime.

Both possess monster first serves, while Kyrgios compact backhand ensures he won’t be rushed on that wing, while the quicker conditions help limit the unforced errors off the racquet of the Canadian.

With Auger Aliassime at a much cheaper price, he’ll be my second selection to win the Australian Open.

Finally, if there’s one player I’d look to throw a few dollars on as a real longshot? I’d say Marin Cilic at 100/1 is a decent punt for a few dollars. Nothing to track, but certainly someone who should win a few rounds and has the serve to beat a lot of players on any given day!

Selection: Djokovic to win the Australian Open
Best Odds: 2.10 (Bet365)
Stakes: 3/10
Bonus: Auger Aliassime to win the Australian Open at 19.00 odds with Bet365 using 1/10 stakes.

Odds as of 11:00 pm on December 18th, 2022. Odds may now differ.