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We’re into the second week of Wimbledon and by the end of play on Monday (unless there’s a lot of rain), we’ll be down to the final eight players in each of the men’s and women’s draws.
For our first preview on the men’s side of things, let’s look at Alex de Minaur vs Arthur Fils.
Fils’ win probability sits at just above 20%, with his Australian counterpart entering as the solid favorite at 1.21 odds. The handicap is 5.5 games and the total games line is 36.5.
Our de Minaur vs Fils prediction is to pass, though if you want to have some action on the match, Fils at a cheap price isn’t the worst look as a high-odds underdog.
This match is an interesting one, primarily because we have a stylistic contrast and a fairly large matchup edge for the favorite, which makes it tough to back Fils, even with his fairly cheap price and incredible talent and ability.
De Minaur does like his grass court tennis and does an excellent job moving and defending, even on a surface that rewards it least. Considering Fils can be so error-prone and miss some easy, neutral rally, regulation shots, it could be very tough for him to carve out a path to victory barring a very high first serve percentage
Head over to the expert insights page for more previews of the year’s third grand slam!
The world No. 9 broke into the top 10 for the first time earlier this season and has been able to keep himself in the vicinity throughout the first six-plus months of the year, dropping out for a bit, but using grass season to propel himself back into that elite group.
He’s looked great over the last several weeks, winning the title in ‘s-Hertogenbosch before clearly being fatigued in a loss from 6-1 up against Lorenzo Musetti.
He’s done well to win six sets from six so far here as well, receiving a walkover from Lucas Pouille in the last round. Now, you can argue the merits of the extra rest versus potentially being rusty, but you can’t argue about how strong his game is on the grass.
Though he’s underpowered relative to some of the game’s elite, he has added a bit of pop to his forehand this season, plays with a more aggressive mindset, and quicker courts have always helped his game play up and close the gap on some of the bigger hitters on tour.
Throw in the ability to scoot around the court, despite grass being tougher to move on, and his elite defending allowing him to still generate break points at a rate many struggle to and you’ve got a recipe for success.
That last point will be key on Monday. Can he prolong those rallies and coax those errors from his opponent’s racquet? If he can, I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds yet another swift win.
The 20-year-old plays boom or bust type tennis and that’s reflected by his results this season. Though he’s had a lot of early exits at events across surfaces, he’s also had plenty of success.
He reached the semifinals of the ATP 250 in Auckland on hard courts, won a high-level Challenger Tour tournament in Bordeaux on clay, and has now reached the second week of Wimbledon on grass.
He employs a powerful style that sometimes goes awry, but when it’s on, he can legitimately challenge, and beat, almost anyone.
For this match, it’s all about assessing the likelihood he can do that against de Minaur, and for me, the fact that de Minaur is so well positioned to extract those unforced errors that can cause him to unravel is a big disadvantage.
Fils has the win in the lone match these two have played and it came just a few months ago in Barcelona. Now, that’s on clay and so it’s tough to read too much into that since grass and clay are on the complete opposite ends of the court speed and bounce spectrums.
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