tennis | Monday, February 27, 2023 10:23 AM

Monday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Austin, Alycia Parks vs Mirjam Bjorklund

Jon Reid

Alycia Parks vs Mirjam Bjorklund Best Bet: Monday, February 27th

Nice stuff from Caty McNally to get us a much-needed win to end the week in Merida. She was able to dominate on return and with the more powerful game, found holds of serve a bit more easily.

This week, the WTA Tour heads to Monterrey, Mexico and Austin, Texas for a pair of small tuneup events ahead of the Sunshine Double of Indian Wells and Miami.

For our Monday selection, we’ll look at the match featuring Alycia Parks and Mirjam Bjorklun in Austin.

In this article:

Alycia Parks vs Mirjam Bjorklund Preview
Alycia Parks vs Mirjam Bjorklund Best Bet

Alycia Parks vs Mirjam Bjorklund Preview

February 27th, 18:00 (UK Time)

Another match outdoors, another match that sees Parks’ valuation in the betting markets as though she’s still playing late-season, indoor 125K events in France.

I understand that she’s been a revelation, and that her serve may already be in the top-10 in the women’s game.

That said, we’ve still yet to see her prove that she can translate her indoor hard court successes when moved outside.

Conditions are always different, usually playing a role in slowing things down. That renders a server and player looking to finish rallies sooner rather than later much less effective.

Let’s look at Parks’ four matches on outdoor hard courts so far in 2023.

She needed a 7-5 third set to beat the underpowered Fernanda Contreras Gomez last week, before being unceremoniously ousted by Rebecca Peterson 6-4, 6-2.

Prior to that, she played in Australian Open qualifying, where she needed a pair of tiebreaks to beat Aussie Alexandra Bozovic as a 1.05-odds favourite and then lost to clay courter (who lost here in the first round of qualifiers) Sara Bejlek as a sub-1.40 odds favourite.

Her game is simply overvalued when it comes to outdoor hard courts. The reason? Likely a lot of data-centric bettors and modellers that scrape hard-court data and use hard-court elo ratings, which don’t distinguish between what matches were played indoors and which were played outside.

This gives us a continued overvaluation on Parks, and I’m happy to look to exploit that.

As for Bjorklund, she’s no superstar, but she has a few things going for her. She can hit with pace herself, is just as good as everyone mentioned above with the exception of her countrywoman Peterson, and she is a natural hard-court player.

All of those things indicate to me that she should be competitive in this match.

Alycia Parks vs Mirjam Bjorklund Best Bet

We continue to see the bookmakers (and to a certain extent, the market) value Parks as a top player on hard courts, when there should be a clear distinction between her play indoors and her play outdoors in slower conditions and where weather may be a factor.

The results are night and day, with consistent struggles against players outside of the top-200 when playing on outdoor hard courts.

With Bjorklund being a hard courter and possessing decent pop in her own right, she’s got the level to keep those struggles going for the American.

At the very least, she’s as good (in reality, she’s much better) than many others who have pushed Parks to the limits outdoors.

Happy to back her to keep things close, as well as win the match at the odds currently on offer.