tennis | Friday, February 10, 2023 8:57 AM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Linz, Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Lena Friedsam

Jon Reid

Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Lena Friedsam Best Bet: Friday, February 10th

I was absolutely rocked by betting tennis yesterday, but thankfully, Petra Martic came through in a nail-biter to get our preview over the line. Let’s do it again Friday, shall we?

Onto Friday, where a winning bet would feel more like a miracle than anything. Let’s delve into the match between Anastasia Potapova and Anna Lena Friedsam.

In this article:

Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Lena Friedsam Preview
Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Lena Friedsam Best Bet

Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Lena Friedsam Preview

February 10th, 15:00 (UK Time)

It was an impressive performance on return from the German today against Anhelina Kalinina, as she picked up a pretty surprising win against the in-form Ukrainian.

Friday brings a completely different test, against a young Russian who plays a much more aggressive style, with far more power – two attributes that play really well on quick indoor, GreenSet hard courts.

Potapova is also someone playing far more regularly at tour level and against much stronger competition. With losses against some really strong young players, as well as a slew of top-50 opponents, it’s hard to see Friedsam fitting in the category of those who trouble her.

She’s beaten an incredibly tough, consistent baseliner in Lucia Bronzetti, as well as a big-hitting Jule Niemeier this week, and there’s a case to be made this is the third most talented opponent she’s faced in her three matches in Linz.

Her elo rating, clocking in at 115 points ahead of Friedsams, illustrates to perfection how much tougher the competition she plays is, and highlights that her success is far more impressive over the last year or so.

Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Lena Friedsam Best Bet

If this match was priced up just a few days ago, in the same conditions with the same players, I find it very hard to believe that we’d see Potapova in the 1.70 range. Friedsam’s other results this year include losing as a strong favourite to Asia Muhammad (a player that struggles to make the jump from ITF events) and Kaja Juvan, while her next best win was against Varvara Gracheva in qualifiers from 2-6 down in a match that Gracheva seemed to be struggling in by the end.

She’s also breaking her opponents’ serve at an eye-popping – and unsustainable – rate of 68%. Her previous career high in that department? 33%.

With Potapova’s power and movement advantage, along with an overvaluation based on Friedsam’s win over a visibly frustrated Kalinina, I’m happy to take a position backing the Russian here.