Andrey Rublev vs Taylor Fritz Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, May 3rd

It’s semifinal Friday from the Mutua Madrid Open on the ATP side. Andrey Rublev vs Taylor Fritz leads things off during the day session.

Fritz is given a 44.1% while Rublev is favoured to win at 1.71 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

Our Rublev vs Fritz prediction is for Rublev to emerge victorious in a serve-oriented match that doesn’t hold much betting value.

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Andrey Rublev vs Taylor Fritz (Mutua Madrid Open) Prediction: Rublev Has Slight Advantage in First Semi of the Day

It’s a huge opportunity for both of these guys, with each just two wins away from their second Masters 1000 titles.

It should be a pretty entertaining and relatively close match more often than not, with both guys holding serve with regularity and capable of ripping some massive forehands. The fact that they’re playing in a bit of altitude should only make those serves and forehands even more impressive for the fans watching on.

As for the match itself, I have Rublev with a slight advantage. He’s more athletic and has more clay court pedigree than his American counterpart. The ability to hit a big serve and huge forehand seems fairly even, so I completely agree with Rublev being a favourite, though not an overwhelming one.

Be sure to check out our Jiri Lehecka vs Felix Auger prediction for the other semi-final over on the Expert Insights section!

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Andrey Rublev Recent Form

After a poor end to his hard court season and start to his clay season, Rublev has picked up some much needed wins in Madrid the last week or so. He was just 1-4 in matches in Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo and Barcelona, with many believing the default in Dubai was causing some sort of hangover.

If that was the case, it certainly isn’t now, as Rublev has a few dominant wins and a few close ones, including a come-from-behind victory against Carlos Alcaraz last time out.

When his serve and forehand are working, he can be such a tough player to beat. Sometimes his frustration with his own poor play is what makes him his own worst enemy though.

He’ll need to be a bit more patient on Friday, with Fritz possessing a powerful serve and forehand combination of his own. Chances to find breaks of serve may be few and far between, and if he can stay patient and calm, he could end up ousting himself from the tournament.

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Taylor Fritz Recent Form

The world No. 13 has found himself in a groove leading up to the second Slam of the year.

He was a match away from his second title of 2024 in Munich the week before the Madrid Masters, and has now made it to the semifinals, with the altitude and slightly quicker conditions helping his game.

He hasn’t beaten any of the world’s best, but players like Francisco Cerundolo and Luciano Darderi are strong players and certainly not easy to beat on the clay and someone like Hubert Hurkacz can serve his way to so many wins, so it’s not like Fritz has had a slew of cupcakes to reach this stage either.

I’m not sure if he can outduel Rublev from the baseline on this surface, so the best strategy for him may be to focus on landing a high percentage of his first serves and look to keep himself in touch by playing sound tennis in his service games.

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Andrey Rublev vs Taylor Fritz H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played six times on the professional tour in the past, with Fritz leading 4-2. The lone matchup on the dirt, however, was taken by Rublev last season in Monte Carlo.

Madrid plays somewhere between Monte Carlo and a hard court though, so it’s hard to know which matches from the past are most prescient when it comes to evaluating this contest on Friday afternoon.

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