tennis | Thursday, May 11, 2023 7:41 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Rome, Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Blinkova

Jon Reid

Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Blinkova Best Bet: Thursday, May 11th

Another match that started off in a promising way with Paula Badosa getting the early break and looking like she had an easy consolidation game. In the end, Anna Lena Friedsam played well above her head on the clay and took the first set to 12 games, dooming the under.

Much like the men’s bets, it’s one I would make again on slow clay.

For Thursday, let’s preview the matchup featuring Anhelina Kalinina and Anna Blinkova.

In this article:

Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Blinkova Preview
Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Blinkova Best Bet

Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Blinkova Preview

May 11th, 13:00 (UK Time)

It’s odd to see Kalinina as the strong favourite in this match.

She’s not, by nature, a clay courter, her 2022 performances were okay, yet nothing that stood off the page and her form of late has been pretty poor.

The Ukrainian has a flatter game style and doesn’t possess the firepower to cut through the slower red clay, so the rally tolerance can wane and there isn’t much finishing ability to her game.

She’s someone that is more used to counterpunching – tough to do on a surface that eats up pace – and pinpoint precision (which can be disastrous when one’s game isn’t clicking). Throw in the fact that she’s been in pretty poor form (four straight losses and eight consecutive sets dropped), and I’m not sure what reason there is to like her here as such a strong favourite to advance.

As for Blinkova, she’s emerged as a decent clay courter in the past few seasons. Once a player with solid pop to her groundstrokes but very little power, we’ve seen her take strides on the red dirt and significantly improve her chances in more extended baseline exchanges in recent years.

I have this one much closer than the current odds would indicate.

Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Blinkova Best Bet

As I often try to do in this section of the article, I want to try and figure out why this pricing is off.

After all, if one doesn’t know why the price point is off, perhaps it’s my number that is incorrect.

The first thing that jumps off the page is that the elo ratings favour the Ukrainian by a decent amount. Considering almost all her clay success last year came in Madrid at altitude (again, where the ball flies and flat hitting isn’t punished as much, plus more pace on groundstrokes to counterpunch), I’m happy to look at the context and deem that a market overreaction.

Secondly, if we look at Blinkova in her last match, she was over a 2:1 underdog against Mayar Sherif. That’s a bet I had personally and on my Twitter. Why is that relevant? It tells me the market may not be familiar with her game and style from a qualitative standpoint, which also helps us understand why the market could be off in its valuation of this match.

I’m going to play the overs here as well in case this is as close of a match as anticipated, but she comes out on the losing side.