tennis | Friday, June 23, 2023 8:33 AM (Revised at: Friday, June 23, 2023 8:34 AM)

Friday Tennis Best Bet: WTA 125 Gaiba, Ashlyn Krueger vs Lucrezia Stefanini

Jon Reid

Ashlyn Krueger vs Lucrezia Stefanini Best Bet: Friday, June 23rd

I cannot believe how that bet was lost. These articles have been seemingly cursed with the worst blown lead stories I’ve had all season, but this one was special. Emina Bektas didn’t just have four match points, but she had a 40-0 lead on serve, thought she hit an ace, was told it was a let and she had to re-do her first serve and choked the match away from there. Some books had Marino as high as 200/1 to win that match when facing three match points on return. That may be the most shocking choke I’ve had a wager on in thousands of bets placed.

For Friday, we’ll see if we can match that choke with another writeup that falls apart from a 99% probability in-match as we look at the match between Ashlyn Krueger and Lucrezia Stefanini.

In this article:

Ashlyn Krueger vs Lucrezia Stefanini Preview
Ashlyn Krueger vs Lucrezia Stefanini Best Bet

Ashlyn Krueger vs Lucrezia Stefanini Preview

June 23rd, 13:00 (UK Time)

It’s been a nice start to Krueger’s grass career. The American teenager hadn’t played on the surface prior to this season, but has racked up four wins already, and nearly had her first-ever match on the lawns before breaking down against her compatriot in Sachia Vickery.

The success makes sense as well. Krueger is armed with a huge serve, potent groundstrokes and plays an aggressive style. Her movement isn’t the greatest, but when she can dictate play, it’s tough for opponents to work the ball into the outer thirds of the court and exploit that potential weakness.

That has led to some impressive wins, including a pair of dominant victories a week ago against WTA-level competition in Rebecca Peterson and Victoria Azarenka.

She reached this round from trailing Katie Swan and needed an injury to get here, but Swan was one of the toughest players in the entire field, and if we’re being honest, would likely be playing at the WTA Birmingham event if a pair of veterans hadn’t used up two of the wild cards.

Taking on Stefanini, Krueger should have a big surface edge, as Stefanini is far more of a clay courter or slow hard courter (she’s undervalued in slower conditions on hard courts), and should feel confident that she should make a confidence-boosting semifinal here.

Ashlyn Krueger vs Lucrezia Stefanini Best Bet

The relative lack of experience and/or success on grass makes this matchup fun to handicap. The primary difference between these two comes down to two things.

First, without a whole lot of data to go on, how has each of them looked in a limited sample? The other thing to consider is how their game profiles on the surface.

As mentioned above, Krueger has a much more natural fit game-wise on grass. A big serve to win cheap points and strong groundstrokes that skid through the surface and make defending that much tougher. Stefanini, on the other hand, is more defensive-oriented and doesn’t possess the same ability to end points of her own volition from the baseline.

When we look at the limited sample on each, the Italian has done very little in her two years on grass. She has losses to some rather unimpressive competition since the start of last grass season and her wins don’t really move the needle either.

This week she’s barely gotten past Magali Kempen who has no grass pedigree to speak of in her own right and then Evgeniya Rodina, who has played a few events since returning from maternity leave and has been crushed more often than not.

I’ll gladly side with the player more likely to succeed on grass, with the much more impressive resume, even if it’s in a smaller sample.