Roberto Bautista Agut vs Emilio Nava Prediction, Odds Stats, Form, H2H, 3/21/24

Our final match preview for Thursday looks at another contest from the opening round of the ATP draw at the Miami Open. We’ve got a battle of generations of sorts in our Bautista Agut vs  Nava prediction. Nava’s win probability is 42.4% while Bautista Agut is favored to win at 1.64 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 23.

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Bautista Agut vs Nava Prediction: Upstart American Has Great Chance at Upset

• Prediction: Nava to win
• Best Odds: 2.36
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on March 21st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Even if you believe that Bautista Agut hasn’t regressed all that much and that being on these quicker courts may help mask the decline in pace on his groundstrokes, I’m still not sure how you can look past how poor he’s been this season to this point.

He may have enough rally tolerance and counterpunching in him to get through this match, but having Nava down around the 40% mark to win against this iteration of the Spaniard is something I will oppose.

Nava can be erratic at times, but he does have huge weapons and should be able to exploit these courts himself and find a few more cheap points behind his first serve than his veteran counterpart. My Bautista Agut vs Nava prediction is for Nava to get the W. 

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Roberto Bautista Agut Recent Form

Other than Hong Kong in the opening week of the season, this is the first week that we’ve seen Bautista Agut win more than one match at an event so far in 2024.

The 35-year-old has had a noticeable drop off in the pace he can generate, and that has left him a bit too vulnerable on serve.

He’s looked surprisingly uncompetitive in many of his losses this year. That’s not a descriptor you’d normally use for the Spaniard, whose career has been built on ruthless consistency, incredible defending, and strong counterpunching, making opponents work for everything against him.

Without the same level of physicality as he had in the past and a lack of power to help make up for it, he’s looked rather pedestrian and has dropped all the way down to 100th in the world.

His qualifying campaign saw him beat Benjamin Hassan in a close two sets and then Otto Virtanen in three. Those two have each had some success at the Challenger level, but neither has ever had real sustained win streaks and neither has ever threatened to become tour-level regulars.

I’m just not convinced that taking on another Challenger player, in better form and with the most well-rounded game he’s come up against yet, all while showing clear signs of aging is worthy of being a clear favorite at this point.

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Emilio Nava Recent Form

This year has probably already been one of the best in the young American’s career.

Nava is at a career-high ranking, and he’s won multiple matches at a tournament six times to date (that includes qualifying draws, as well as this week in Miami). That may not seem like a big deal, but considering Nava has been a known commodity among those that monitor prospects for quite some time, but had yet to demonstrate any likelihood of breaking through due to his inconsistency, continually winning multiple matches week in, and week out is impressive.

He has a huge serve and can fire the ball back at his opponents rather viciously, but the decision-making could still use some work and his game could use a bit more polish on the whole.

Nevertheless, if he’s going to draw someone after earning his way into the main draw with a pair of strong qualifying wins, Bautista Agut may not be the worst opponent to face.

He shouldn’t be able to rush Nava too much from the baseline and Nava will certainly be able to play on his terms more often than not – something he does prefer.

If Nava can stay focused on return, start points, and get to neutral footing, rather than going for low-margin shots too early, he should be able to work his way into return games with regularity.

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Roberto Bautista Agut vs Emilio Nava H2H – Stat of the Match

Considering the age gap of about 13 years here, it’s not a big surprise that these two haven’t met before.

The statistical arena is where Bautista Agut still holds the edge on the upstart American. He’s still got a comfortable lead in the blended hard court elo department. That may tighten, however, with his hold plus break percentage so far in 2024 is a pretty poor 90%. Nava’s mark of 91% is nothing to write home about either, but it certainly indicates that so far this year, while he hasn’t been great on the main tour scene, he’s been no worse than Bautista Agut.

Further, his Challenger Tour percentage (110%) has been exemplary and could be indicative of a breakthrough coming on the main tour in due time.

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