tennis | Tuesday, May 16, 2023 7:58 AM

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Rome, Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Anhelina Kalinina

Jon Reid

Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Anhelina Kalinina Best Bet: Tuesday, May 16th

Dominant win from Beatriz Haddad Maia against Camila Osorio, as she was able to match the steadiness and then take over with her more powerful game.

For Tuesday, we’ll go right back to the big-serving Brazilian and preview her match against Anhelina Kalinina on Tuesday for a spot in the semifinals.

In this article:

Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Anhelina Kalinina Preview
Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Anhelina Kalinina Best Bet

Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Anhelina Kalinina Preview

May 16th, 18:00 (UK Time)

Well, it’s going to be a very similar handicap to Monday’s with Haddad Maia, as I’m content going right back to the Brazilian on Tuesday after her performance on Monday, especially considering who she’s playing and the price in the markets.

Much like Osorio, Kalinina hasn’t exactly convinced me so far in Rome – at least when it comes to convincing me she can topple a well-rounded player like Haddad Maia.

She beat Anna Blinkova by a wide margin, but had to save break points in a slew of games to avoid that match having a different complexion. She then went on to best Sofia Kenin, who reverted to the error-prone player she’s been for a while after a huge win over Aryna Sabalenka. Finally, she took down a big hitter who isn’t as natural on clay and doesn’t have much margin for error to her game in Madison Keys.

Same kind of script, where she now takes on someone with more weapons than her, more comfort on the surface than her and can still play the prolonged rallies without committing too many errors.

Haddad Maia has been undervalued in the betting markets in every match she’s played in Rome.

If the market continues to make mistakes, I’m happy to keep taking advantage.

Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Anhelina Kalinina Best Bet

Now, the price is slightly more expensive here than it was for Monday’s match against Osorio, but I actually think there’s more value this time around.

For starters, Haddad Maia and her play – both statistically and from tape study – has me upgrading her, meaning even if the price is getting more expensive, my expected win probability for her is increasing, which helps offset that slight increase in price.

Secondly, at least Osorio was a strong clay courter.

I have Kalinina rated much further down my ranks in terms of clay-court play, meaning she should be a much bigger favourite here than against Osorio.