tennis | Monday, May 15, 2023 8:02 AM

Monday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Rome, Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Camila Osorio

Jon Reid

Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Camila Osorio Best Bet: Monday, May 15th

Well, the dominance from Marketa Vondrousova continued on Friday night in the Italian capital, as the elite defending and clay-court prowess of the Czech lost just one game against Bianca Andreescu.

This week brings us the business end of the event in Rome, as both tours look to crown a champion at a Masters-level event for the second time in a two-week span.

For Monday’s preview, let’s look at the match between Beatriz Haddad Maia and Camila Osorio.

In this article:

Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Camila Osorio Preview
Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Camila Osorio Best Bet

Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Camila Osorio Preview

May 15th, 11:30 (UK Time)

The run from Osorio over the past four matches has been the perfect encapsulation of her as a player.

She hasn’t looked dominant, and at times, she’s looked vulnerable with her underpowered game. Yet here she is, in the fourth round of a pretty big event after having come through qualifying.

That testament to her never-say-die mentality on court, however, is also something that probably isn’t sustainable as the competition on the other side of the net gets tougher. It also means that entering this match, her Brazilian opponent has the form edge.

Osorio’s wins against the likes of Varvara Gracheva and Oceane Dodin were expected and she didn’t look very strong on either day against a pair of players that have typically struggled against decent competition on the surface.

Her defeat of Caroline Garcia was impressive, but it was an error-strewn match from the Frenchwoman that had her explicitly state how frustrated she was with her play after the match.

Now she takes on someone with a balanced game in terms of being able to attack and defend, and someone who’s very familiar with playing on the dirt in Haddad Maia.

The world No. 15 has looked strong in her two matches so far in Rome, cruising past an aggressive ball strikes in Elena Gabriela Ruse and sending Magda Linette packing in straight sets (that match was never really in doubt, despite a somewhat close scoreline, thanks to a nervy Haddad Maia in the latter stages of both sets).

With the power advantage and the consistency to stick with the stubborn Colombian, I have Haddad Maia as the significant favourite in this one.

Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Camila Osorio Best Bet

In terms of why we’re seeing value on Haddad Maia, I think the last two wins have convinced the market that Osorio – a natural clay courter and elite mover and defender – is finding form and just grinding players down.

That may work against someone as error-prone as Garcia or against others that simply aren’t as natural on the surface, but I’m not sure she’s seen someone with a more balanced game that is also talented enough to be inside the world’s top-15.

It could also be data-driven bettors taking underdog prices on Osorio, since she has the better raw clay-court elo rating, and is just a dozen points behind when it comes to the blended clay-court elo.

I do think that Haddad Maia deserves to be a more pronounced favourite, so I will back her to get the job done on Monday.