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Mixed martial arts Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Rome, Camila Osorio vs Oceane Dodin
Camila Osorio vs Oceane Dodin Best Bet: Tuesday, May 9th
I expected the win from Kamilla Rakhimova, but I was not even prepared for that dominant of a performance. The fatigue for Elizabeth Mandlik was clear, and it resulted in a deluge of easy shots to put away for the Russian in the forecourt.
Onto Tuesday, where the final round of qualifying, as well as the main draw’s first round get underway for the women. We’ll preview the match between Camila Osorio and Oceane Dodin.
In this article:
Camila Osorio vs Oceane Dodin Preview
May 9th, 13:00 (UK Time)
Loving some of the pricing in the first few days of the week on some of the favourites in Rome.
First, we saw Rakhimova at an absurdly cheap price on Monday against a tired Mandlik. Now we get a clay courter, a well-rounded player and a top-35 talent (she’s still working her way back up the rankings) in Osorio, taking on a tall, serve-oriented Dodin who doesn’t move particularly well.
The market has backed Dodin a bit in the early goings, and the only reason I can think of would be her 6-2, 6-2 win in the opening round of qualifying against Anna Turati. Now, it’s worth noting that the lack of depth in Italian women’s tennis is on full display this week, as the organisers of the event had to hand out wild cards to some pretty poor players for both the main and qualifying draws. Turati was one such player.
Needless to say, I’m going to put much more weight in Dodin’s struggles this season on the dirt against decent players than one good win against a relative nobody.
Then there’s the fact that Osorio is either the best clay courter Dodin has played to date, or the second-best, depending on how one evaluates Danka Kovinic.
She holds the surface edge, has much more rally tolerance and the difference in the ability to cover the court between these two is night and day – also in favour of the Colombian No. 1.
Not only is the matchup on her side, but the discrepancy in each player’s form is also clear at the moment.
Dodin has just one other win on the red clay this season (she beat a 28-year-old ITF journeywoman Jesika Maleckova) and has lost in straight sets three times by an average of eight games.
Why the market believes she’d fare better despite a clear step up in competition is beyond me.
As for Osorio, there were certainly concerns regarding health a few weeks back, as she hadn’t played since February and missed the big events in Indian Wells and Miami.
Those have been alleviated, as the 21-year-old has enjoyed her time back on clay, with a handful of wins since her return, and just two losses – to Lauren Davis (a surprising one, but to a top-55 player nonetheless) and Aryna Sabalenka (the most in form player in the world).
Camila Osorio vs Oceane Dodin Best Bet
As I alluded to above, not only is the Frenchwoman losing consistently to decent players this season on clay, but she’s being blown out.
Perhaps Osorio not having the biggest serve means she may break a time or two more and instead of a loss of eight or 10 games, we only see her lose by five or six. Even then, this handicap is well off at -3.5.
I’m happy to back Osorio to cover the 3.5-game handicap, as well as back her to win this in straight sets, as I have her winning this in straight sets nearly half the time, with the odds on offer implying just a 43.86% probability of that happening.
- Selection: Osorio -3.5 Games
- Best Odds: 1.85 (Unibet)
- Stakes: 5/10
- Bonus: Osorio to win 2-0 at 2.20 odds with Pinnacle, using 3/10 stakes.
Odds as at 5:00 am UK Time on May 9th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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