Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 12th

What a day semifinal Friday should be. After the women played a pair of high-tension matches at Wimbledon on Thursday, the men will look to match the excitement as the weekend nears.

Let’s take a look at Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev for the first preview of the day.

Medvedev’s win probability is just over 26%, while Alcaraz is favored to win at 1.31dds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 39.5.

Our Alcaraz vs Medvedev prediction is for Alcaraz to win, but with Medvedev potentially causing problems.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction: Alcaraz Should Roll, but Medvedev has Tools to Keep Things Close

I’m much closer to betting on Alcaraz than the over games or Medvedev, but I’m not quite there. I do think Alcaraz has learned that he needs to come to net a lot in this matchup to exploit the return position of Medvedev, but there are still concerns for him in the matchup.

There’s no doubt that he’s more well-rounded and the better player, but as we saw last round, Medvedev is so solid from the baseline, finds cheap points with his first serve, and is so tough to break down that he can close the gap with his solidity on even the best players in the game.

Throw in Alcaraz’s penchant for unforced errors and randomly sloppy play and it makes giving up a 4.5-game head start a bit of a nervy prospect.

Read on for more expert insights.

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Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form

The defending champ has had to fend off three straight opponents that have pushed him to at least four sets, with Frances Tiafoe being just six points from victory, Ugo Humbert getting the fourth set down to the end before succumbing and Tommy Paul going a set and break up before the Spaniard took over.

The biggest concern for Alcaraz has to be the unforced error count reaching 30+ in each of those matches and with Medvedev being able to start and prolong points well on return, he’ll certainly want to clean that up.

The strategy for Alcaraz is simple: get Medvedev’s first serve timed up and back in play, be aggressive against a second serve that has looked somewhat vulnerable, and in his service games come to net early and often. It’s something Sinner didn’t do enough of, but Alcaraz is a little more comfortable on approach and must be speedier. If he can do those three things well, he should be able to sail into the final once more in 2024.

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Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

Medvedev hasn’t looked all that dominant this fortnight either. Other than the first round against an American who struggles on the surface, he disappointed against Alexandre Muller and Jan Lennard Struff (after a great start in the latter match) to a certain extent.

Even his win against Grigor Dimitrov which only lasted eight games saw him go behind instantly before Dimitrov’s leg injury forced him to retire as the Russian seized control of the match.

The path to victory for Medvedev? Induce, induce, induce. Unforced errors that is. Alcaraz is prone to bouts of erratic play and Medvedev’s rock-solid nature from the baseline is something he’ll have to lean on heavily if he wants to progress. Finding a way to offset the cheap net points his opponents can tally against him would also be useful, as well as his return game needing some aggression against an Alcaraz who plays a complete game, but doesn’t have the most powerful of serves.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev H2H – Stat of the Match

As you’d expect between two of the better players on tour, these two have met plenty, with Alcaraz leading four wins to two.

That includes a routine win at the All England Club a year ago and Medvedev avenging that loss in the best-of-five match in New York last summer.

The only meeting this year came on slow hard courts, with Alcaraz winning 7-6, 6-1.

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