tennis | Friday, February 24, 2023 8:29 AM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Merida, Caty McNally vs Kimberly Birrell

Jon Reid

Caty McNally vs Kimberly Birrell Best Bet: Friday, February 24th

Well, that bet was lost in typical fashion. Sloane Stephens served at 5-4 for the first set and lost it 7-5. Then after winning the second set 6-2, she served for the match at 6-5 in the third. That would’ve cashed the -3.5 games bet and voided the -4. Naturally, she was broken again, and despite serving for every set, we somehow lost both bets.

We’ll wrap up the week in Mexico once more, as we preview Caty McNally taking on Kimberly Birrell in a quarterfinal matchup.

In this article:

Caty McNally vs Kimberly Birrell Preview
Caty McNally vs Kimberly Birrell Best Bet

Caty McNally vs Kimberly Birrell Preview

February 24th, 21:00 (UK Time)

It’s been a fantastic run this week for the Aussie Birrell, as she’s come through qualifying and then both Anna Bondar and Xiyu Wang to reach the quarterfinal stage of the competition.

A few notes though to put her run into context. First, she was able to beat Elizabeth Mandlik, in a match that saw Mandlik land fewer than 45% of her first serves (an atrocious number) and who committed 10 double faults. Then it was a Varvara Gracheva who looked far from her best, Bondar who was the better player for much of the first set, but was frustrated by the number of balls coming back and who tanked the second set and then an immobile and volatile Wang.

Second, she plays a very physical style, retrieving an incredible number of balls and playing long points. Without many weapons, she struggles to dictate unless she lands a first serve.

Finally, this is the third straight week she’s played deep into a tournament. Tomorrow will mark her 12th match in 17 days. Playing a physical style, that is bound to add up.

Then there’s the matter of McNally. The American is an incredibly skilled 21-year-old, who has been talked about in the tennis community for a few years, but hasn’t really lived up to the hype. She’s cracked the top-100, but has yet to reach the top-75. A win in this match would actually help her do just that.

She’s very well rounded with a strong serve, the ability to dictate on the forehand wing, an improving backhand and strong play at the net – something not so common among her generation – thanks to her extensive doubles play with fellow American Coco Gauff (the duo has the nickname of “McCoco).

McNally is the more talented player, with the higher ceiling, more play at the WTA Tour level and with less concerns surrounding fatigue.

Even form-wise she has stacked up well with the Aussie, having dominated her second round encounter with another young American in Katie Volynets and having outlasted the in-form Lin Zhu.

Caty McNally vs Kimberly Birrell Best Bet

Metrically, Birrell is having a very nice season – primarily due to her strong week here – in terms of hold plus break percentage.

When it comes to elo ratings, however, McNally does have the edge in both hard-court ratings and the blended hard-court rating.

With the bigger game, higher ceiling to her talent and having more experience at tour level, I’m happy to back McNally here as a relatively short favourite.