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With only a few matches remaining in Tampico and the late release of the pricing on each match, we’ll head back to the ITF Tour this week, with plenty of higher-level events on offer.
Once again, it’s to the indoor hard courts of Poitiers, France, where we find another match featuring Jodie Burrage, as she takes on one of the better young guns in the game in Clara Tauson.
In this article:
October 28th, 17:00 UK Time
Once again, we’ll look to back Burrage in a situation that I believe she is fairly undervalued.
Last time it was as a slight favourite in conditions that should’ve seen her as a sizable favourite and this time, it’s as a very long underdog that should be afforded a bit more respect.
The 2022 season hasn’t been an easy one for her opponent, Tauson, who’s struggled with injuries off and on since Miami in March. She played just a single match on clay and then retired after five games in her only grass match of the season at Wimbledon.
Since then, it’s been a disappointing return to the hard courts, as the lack of matches have made it difficult to find a rhythm with her incredibly aggressive, power-based game. That has led to errors and losses. It was a vicious cycle that saw her lose her first match at four of the six events she entered prior to this week on hard courts.
Now that she’s finally dipped down to the ITF level, she’s found draws that have allowed her to dominate and find a groove. While good to see for her, Burrage is a vastly superior opponent to the likes of Anastasia Tikhonova and Cristina Bucsa on an indoor court that plays pretty quickly.
Her serve is much more dominant than those two and she can dictate play in her own right on the forehand wing.
Despite the real lack of quality wins on her resume, two quick wins have the markets once again pricing up Tauson as some elite hard courter.
While her style does lend itself to dominance when it’s clicking, I’m not sure two victories warrant this kind of pricing – especially against a player that likes the conditions and has a more-than-competent game of her own.
I’ll back Burrage to keep this one much closer than we’re seeing reflected in the prices at the moment and back this match to go over the total.
Odds as at 9:05 am on October 28th, 2022. Odds may now differ.