tennis | Tuesday, February 14, 2023 10:45 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, February 14, 2023 10:46 AM)

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Doha, Daria Kasatkina vs Rebecca Marino

Jon Reid

Daria Kasatkina vs Rebecca Marino Best Bet: Tuesday, February 14th

Very nice stuff from Karolina Muchova, dropping only four games in her win over Martina Trevisan in Doha. Gets the week going with a nice win for our women’s selections.

For Tuesday, we’ll delve into the final match scheduled on the day in the Qatari capital between Daria Kasatkina and Rebecca Marino.

In this article:

Daria Kasatkina vs Rebecca Marino Preview
Daria Kasatkina vs Rebecca Marino Best Bet

Daria Kasatkina vs Rebecca Marino Preview

February 14th, 17:00 (UK Time)

It’s been an interesting start to the year for Kasatkina, who has a few nice wins, but has also been beaten badly on three separate occasions.

This is a pretty strong spot for the 25-year-old to get on track, playing Marino, who has an impressive serve and strong forehand wing, but does lack dynamism to her game and isn’t half the mover the Russian is.

The Canadian did come through qualifying and beat a few pretty good hard courters in Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Marie Bouzkova, but neither is near the top of the game like Kasatkina.

Kasatkina’s ability to get around the court, extend points and avoid hitting many unforced errors is perfect when taking on Marino. If she can weather the storm when Marino is dictating with her forehand, she should find a chance to counterpunch and hit into the outer thirds of the court. That should help her take advantage of Marino’s lack of foot speed and help get the rallies back to neutral or potentially seize control for herself.

Daria Kasatkina vs Rebecca Marino Best Bet

There’s no sugar-coating the poor losses and how lopsided they were that Kasatkina has taken this season. They’ve kept her hold plus break percentages pretty low for the young 2023 season, but the gulf in quality between the two is illustrated well by their hard-court elo ratings.

The Canadian is nearly 200 points behind Kasatkina. For reference, Tennis Abstract has a 200-point discrepancy as a 76% chance for the favourite (using the hElo column on the site to use the blended elo ratings recommended for specific matchups). Right now, the markets have Kasatkina well below that number, and as a result the handicap is only at three games and I have this number closer to four.