tennis | Tuesday, February 28, 2023 8:52 AM

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Monterrey, Donna Vekic vs Lesia Tsurenko

Jon Reid

Donna Vekic vs Lesia Tsurenko Best Bet: Tuesday, February 28th

A nice pair of wins to start the week from our women’s selections, as once again, Alycia Parks proved to be overvalued by the betting markets (particularly on return). Not only did the over land, but Mirjam Bjorklund secured the +1.5-set handicap right off the hop, winning the opener 6-4.

For Tuesday, we’ll look at the matchup taking place between Donna Vekic and Lesia Tsurenko in Monterrey, Mexico.

In this article:

Donna Vekic vs Lesia Tsurenko Preview
Donna Vekic vs Lesia Tsurenko Best Bet

Donna Vekic vs Lesia Tsurenko Preview

February 28th, 21:00 (UK Time)

What a resurgence we’ve seen from Vekic in the last few months. After a deep run in San Diego in the fall, the former world No. 19 has lost just two matches this year – both against very strong opposition.

She ran into the buzzsaw that is currently Aryna Sabalenka in the second week of the year’s opening grand slam, and then played a very competitive two sets against Maria Sakkari in Linz. Those are the only two losses on the season.

Her booming serve has worked very well in the quicker conditions to start the season, and that should continue in Monterrey. We saw big serves provide players with an abundance of free points last week at the Challenger event for the men, and with Vekic’s serve and the elevation in Monterrey, she shouldn’t have an issue doing the same.

Tsurenko, on the other hand, has been somewhat of a return specialist to open her 2023 campaign.

While sporting an abysmal service hold rate of about 50%, her break-of-serve rate on return has been an eye-popping 60%. Problem is, her opponent and the conditions for this tournament don’t favour return-oriented players.

Then there’s the fact that while she’s won 14 matches this year, it’s hard to pinpoint more than one or two that stand out as excellent wins.

It’s likely the main reason we’re seeing the handicap at just three games.

Ultimately, the matchup, the conditions, the form of both players and even the statistics favour the 26-year-old from Croatia here.

Vekic holds a nearly 15% lead in hold plus break percentage between these two, despite having played a generally higher level of competition so far in 2023.

Donna Vekic vs Lesia Tsurenko Best Bet

All things considered, it’s tough for me to look at this matchup and think that this handicap is below the 4-4.5 game mark and think that it makes any sense.

These two may both be in form, but any sort of context would quickly dissuade anyone of the notion that Tsurenko is anywhere near Vekic’s current level.

Vekic has played tougher opposition, has a much stronger serve to fall back on for free points, and the conditions (in altitude) suit her and her serve-oriented game far more.

Not only does Tsurenko not have a big serve, but she doesn’t even have an above-average first serve that could play up thanks to the thin air.

I’m happy to back Vekic to get this one done in a relatively lopsided manner.