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Tennis | Tuesday, September 19, 2023 8:11 AM

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Magdalena Frech Guadalajara Open AKRON Expert Tip: Powerful Russian to Win Convincingly

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Magdalena Frech Guadalajara Open AKRON Expert Tip: Powerful Russian to Win Convincingly
IMAGO / USA TODAY Network Magdalena Frech of Poland hits a shot against Karolina Muchova of the Czech Republic on day three of the 2023 U.S. Open

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Magdalena Frech (Guadalajara Open AKRON): Tuesday, September 19th

One of the final big events of the season for the WTA Tour is underway in Mexico at the Guadalajara Open AKRON. The field has taken a hit in terms of top players pulling out, but the energy is still great, as the Mexican tennis fans continue to show their support for the sport.

For Tuesday’s preview, let’s look at Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Magdalena Frech.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

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Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Magdalena Frech Expert Tip

I’ll be backing Alexandrova here at any number under five games on the handicap.

Not sure if there’s an overreaction to the opening victory for Frech against Camila Osorio, but the Colombian did beat her the week prior in San Diego and retired in her next match, meaning I have my suspicions that she wasn’t near 100% in that tilt this week.

Perhaps it’s the head-to-head being in Frech’s favour that is skewing this market. We’ll go over that in a minute, but I put very little stock in that 2-1 lead historically for several reasons.

Either way, in altitude where Alexandrova’s baseline power should only prove even more difficult to deal with and where her serve should play up, I like her in this spot.

  • Expert Tip: Alexandrova -4 Games at 1.98 with Pinnacle, using 3/10 stakes.

Odds available as of September 19th 2023. Odds may now differ.

Ekaterina Alexandrova Recent Form

We’ve seen a rather quietly strong season from Alexandrova in 2023. She’s been particularly successful in quicker conditions, which makes sense considering she’s more natural on hard courts and plays a power-based game.

The now-quick-playing Miami saw her reach the quarterfinals, she won the title in ‘s-Hertogenbosch on grass, made the semifinals in Berlin on grass and then reached a final and was a set from the title in Cleveland prior to the U.S. Open as well.

The players that have beaten her in recent times? Jelena Ostapenko (in a three-set war), Marketa Vondrousova, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Sorana Cirstea, Aryna Sabalenka and Petra Kvitova. That is a list of really strong WTA players that I wouldn’t necessarily group in with someone like Frech.

With a slew of wins, quick conditions and the fact that it’s generally taken a stronger opponent to beat her lately, I’m happy to back Alexandrova here.

Magdalena Frech Recent Form

Frech has had a decent summer on the hard courts, qualifying for a few events, but the resume is certainly lacking any kind of signature wins over quality players (a category I’d put Alexandrova in on hard courts) and with the exception of her loss to Linda Noskova, she hasn’t put up much of a fight in her losses this summer.

Her game is centred around crafty play and a decent backhand slice, as well as a decent first serve. Other than that, she doesn’t really do much that would make you take notice.

The serve should get some extra pop in over 1,500 metres of altitude, but in points decided from the baseline, she should be on the back foot far more often than not against the world No. 20.

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Magdalena Frech – Stat of the Match

I mentioned the 2-1 series lead here for the Pole a bit earlier. I also stated that I’m not too concerned about it for a few reasons.

The first being that the only two wins Frech has managed against Alexandrova have come on clay. The lone hard-court match was a one-sided affair for the Russian.

The other reason I put very little stock into the head-to-head here is that the three matches took place between five and ten years ago. To believe there’s any relevance to this contest would be a reach to me.

Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on September 19th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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