tennis | Tuesday, February 7, 2023 10:01 AM

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Linz, Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Rebeka Masarova

Jon Reid

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Rebeka Masarova Best Bet: Tuesday, February 7th

Another day, another writeup that loses by the slightest of margins after a lead was choked away. Collins goes from 5-3 up to losing the first set 5-7. Wins the second set 6-1, and then loses by the slightest of margins in the decider. Some day these marginal matches will go our way. That day will be glorious.

Onto Tuesday, where we’ll preview the match between Ekaterina Alexandrova and Rebeka Masarova from Linz, Austria.

In this article:

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Rebeka Masarova Preview
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Rebeka Masarova Best Bet

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Rebeka Masarova Preview

February 7th, 11:30 (UK Time)

This price seems to be quite steep for the Russian to advance, considering how things have gone for her on hard courts the last little while. Despite having a game that should thrive on the quicker courts, the last year has seen her have more success on clay at tour level than on hard courts. In fact, outside of a late-season title at a relatively small event in Seoul, her hard-court record is nothing to write home about.

Alexandrova possesses a decent serve and very strong forehand, but the fact is she can become error prone for long stretches and on quicker surfaces, she can be rushed into shots, diminishing the effectiveness of her baseline game.

Even in her wins, Alexandrova has needed a few three setters and tiebreaks along the way of late.

Enter Rebeka Masarova and her powerful first serve and decent form indoors, and I just don’t think this is nearly as close to a 66% to 34% contest as the market would indicate.

She made the final in Auckland as a qualifier (an outdoor event that was forced inside for the majority of play due to weather), qualified again last week in Lyon and started decently against Jasmine Paolini, until a few perceived missed calls got under her skin and the match ended in disaster. Now she’s qualified again here, without dropping a set, and beating a powerful server and ball striker in the final qualifying round in Clara Tauson. At the very least, that should help her prepare for the power that will be coming at her off Alexandrova’s racquet.

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Rebeka Masarova Best Bet

Statistically speaking, Masarova isn’t as far behind as you’d expect given the odds on offer.

An elo rating discrepancy on hard courts of under 100 points means Alexandrova is expected to win this one under 65% of the time, giving us an implied edge in that respect with a price point of 3.20 on Masarova.

When it comes to hold + break percentages, the two are under 10 points apart, with Masarova’s numbers being skewed by a lopsided defeat to Coco Gauff – an elite WTA Tour player – in Auckland.

Masarova also wins as many points on her first serves, but lands far more of them. Considering neither fares well defending their second serves, that potential difference could be pretty important.

I’ll take Masarova to keep things close, as well as pull off the upset on Tuesday.