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tennis | Thursday, March 16, 2023 8:59 AM (Revised at: Friday, March 17, 2023 7:56 AM)

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Indian Wells, Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Indian Wells, Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova
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Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova Best Bet: Thursday, March 16th

Nice and easy from Aryna Sabalenka, who had such a pronounced advantage on the forehand wing, that Coco Gauff struggled not only to stick around in cross-court exchanges but never even thought of trying to take one of those shots down the line to force the big hitting Belarussian to her backhand.

For our quarterfinals bet on Thursday, I want to take a closer look at the match between Wimbledon champion and Australian Open finalist Elena Rybakina and Karolina Muchova.

In this article:

Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova Preview

March 16th, 21:00 (UK Time)

Another round, another match in which Rybakina is likely overvalued on a slow hard court, thanks to her reputation and pedigree on the surface that has been built up on quicker courts.

Don’t get me wrong, her first serve is still extremely powerful and will certainly find her a decent number of cheap points.

Other than that, however, she doesn’t really have a huge edge over Muchova. Even service-wise, the Czech has a top-15 or top-20 serve herself.

In terms of slow-court prowess, Muchova fits the bill far more naturally. She’s had more success in her career on slower surfaces, she’s the much better mover and plays with far more variety.

Her dropshot in particular should serve her very well in this matchup should she be mindful enough to use it. Rybakina has power and can dictate from the baseline, but charging up the court to reach a well-placed dropshot? Not her forte. Much less actually doing anything productive with said dropshot even if she does get to it.

Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova Best Bet

When looking for value and why this market may be mispriced a few things come to mind. First, the assumption that slow hard courts are equivalent to quicker ones as mentioned before always provides value in opposing the Kazakh in these conditions.

Secondly, I think there may be an overreaction to an injury Muchova sustained a few matches back against Martina Trevisan. She actually looked fine though in her last match against Marketa Vondrousova, dictating play well from the baseline and not having trouble moving over the course of three sets. While I won’t go as large as normal over that concern, the day off is also reassuring enough to go ahead and still back her in some capacity.

The other thing is, I’m not sure the market has priced in Rybakina’s struggles in her previous matches up here quite enough. She’s played two mediocre (at best) servers in Varvara Gracheva. While she dispatched the former, the latter gave her all kinds of trouble. Against the only decent server she played in Paula Badosa, she trailed in the second set, before a capitulation from the Spaniard.

This is by far the most well-rounded player she’s come up against, who can keep pace on serve and matches up well when it comes to her variety that can hurt Rybakina.

I’ll be backing the mispriced underdog in this one.

  • Selection: Over 21.5 Games
  • Best Odds: 1.88 (Unibet)
  • Stakes: 3/10
  • Bonus: Muchova to win at 3.00 odds with Bet365, using 3/10 stakes.

Odds as at 2:30 am on March 15th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

More Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova Tips

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