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Well, Thursday’s bet went nicely with Laura Pigossi coming through quickly against the young American in Katrina Scott. Still surprised she was priced up as an underdog in that matchup.
For this week, the WTA has a pair of events, both on clay, yet neither tournament’s conditions play slowly.
For Monday’s selection, I want to pick up on the trend of looking at a match on clay and played at altitude to look for an edge over the markets. For that, let’s delve into the tilt between Eugenie Bouchard and Ylena In-Albon in the Colombian capital of Bogota.
In this article:
April 3rd, 16:30 (UK Time)
Much like San Luis Potosi last week, this tournament will be played at extreme altitude. This time, however, it’s not a city at 1,865 metres, but at over 2,600 metres!
That produces nearly unique conditions that we’ll find on tour, and typically this event produces some sloppy tennis.
For me, having the Canadian as a strong favourite in this match is simply incorrect.
For starters, she’s not playing someone that struggles on clay. In-Albon may not be a main tour regular yet, but she is someone who plays her best on the red dirt.
Secondly, we haven’t seen Bouchard at her best in years. We haven’t seen her at all since Australia, and we haven’t seen her play a professional match on clay in several years. Let alone play on clay at altitude.
Between the lack of play on in general, as well as on the surface and the fact that if you’re not at your best fitness-wise, the thin air can take its toll, I’m happy to get involved backing In-Albon here.
In terms of the Swiss’ preparedness for the altitude, she did play last week in Mexico. It was a rather poor loss, but it was to Sara Errani who makes you hit a ton of balls and thrives in slower conditions where she can elicit errors from her opponent.
Bouchard is the polar opposite type of player. Movement, consistency and stamina are the weaknesses, not the strengths.
In-Albon also played a series of tournaments in Colombia last year. She had decent success at ITF events in Anapoima and Medellin. Neither is at the level of elevation of Bogota, but any kind of play at altitude is reassuring when handicapping matches like this.
She also played in Bogota, taking home favourite and a pretty strong player in Camila Osorio to three sets, before being forced to retire.
I’m firmly against Bouchard being priced up the way she is and fine taking a stance behind In-Albon in this spot.
Odds as at 4:00 am on March 30th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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