tennis | Friday, June 3, 2022 6:50 PM (Revised at: Sunday, June 5, 2022 11:35 AM)

French Open Men's Final Best Bet: Sunday June 5th

Jon Reid

French Open Men’s Final Best Bet: Nadal vs Ruud

Sunday June 5th 2022, 14:00 (UK Time)

Here we go again. French Open final, the Coupe des Mousquetaires on the line, Rafael Nadal taking to Chatrier.

Despite being another year older, and speculation regarding a chronic foot injury, Nadal has once again come through in stupendous form, looking to add to his collection of titles at Roland Garros.

His chances look really good, as well. His opponent – Casper Ruud – will be taking the court in a major final for the first time, doesn’t really do anything that can trouble Nadal and the king of clay was spared a gruelling match against Alexander Zverev when the German suffered an awful injury late in the second set. That match had reached three hours without even completing two sets.

Statistically, not much needs to be said for Nadal. He’s the greatest to ever play on the surface. Ruud has some impressive numbers as well, but prior to this run the Norwegian had been known to swoop in and collect lower-level titles.

In terms of the matchup, it’s a tough one for Ruud. For starters, his forehand is very similar to that of Nadal. Heavy, has a massive spin rate, can dial up the pace and wear his opposition down. The problem? He doesn’t do it at the same level that the Spaniard does. Same goes for the physicality and durability on the dirt. Finally, the backhand isn’t a glaring weakness, but it is the weak point in his game and players over the last two weeks have found some success targeting it. Factor in Nadal being a lefty and playing those big, spin-centric forehands cross court into that Ruud backhand, and you’ve got the biggest mismatch between the two men.

Finally, as much has been made about Nadal’s foot, it’s worth noting that Ruud may, at any point, break down as well. He’s only come through one of his six matches in straight sets. That can add up for someone that is in uncharted waters in a best-of-five format.

Finally, one other angle to consider before the official selection is made. If concern with Nadal’s foot is front and centre in your mind, consider first set bets. Whether it be first set under games or first set minus games on the handicap, issues shouldn’t pop up physically right off the bat. Plus, this is Ruud’s first major final appearance and he’s taking on the greatest player of all time on the clay. Taking on Nadal and the crowd, without experience in the situation could lead to some early match nerves.

My fair handicap in this position is either an expensive -7.5 games or cheap -8 games. Let’s end the French Open in style. Looking for a 5th straight win to close it out.