tennis | Friday, June 3, 2022 6:41 PM (Revised at: Saturday, June 4, 2022 12:11 PM)

French Open Women's Final Best Bet: Saturday June 4th

Jon Reid

French Open Women’s Final Best Bet: Swiatek vs Gauff

Saturday, June 4th 2022, 14:00 (UK Time)

It’s finally arrived. The women’s final is set, and to absolutely no one’s surprise, world No. 1 Iga Swiatek is representing the top half. She’ll take on American Coco Gauff.

While the tennis world would all like to see a competitive match in the final of a major, you may not want to be late positioning yourself in front of the television for this one.

There are a few reasons to believe that Swiatek will be holding the Suzanne Lenglen Cup sooner rather than later on Chatrier.

The first, is that Gauff hasn’t yet shown a level against top-tier opposition that would lead one to believe she can trouble the scintillating form of the Polish superstar. While she can only play those who advance in her section of the draw, her path to the final hasn’t been the most impressive. Further, her form in the last few matches was strong (particularly defensively), but wasn’t of the level that would have people believing she’s about to win a grand slam trophy.

Second, there’s the statistical gulf between the two. Now, that’s not unique to Gauff – Swiatek is just leaps and bounds above everyone – but it is still relevant. If we want to take a look at current elo ratings, Swiatek is nearly 300 points ahead of Gauff. In terms of that same metric taking into account 2022 results (across surfaces), the gap widens to over 400 points.

From a hold plus break percentage standpoint, the last 52 weeks on clay see Swiatek leading by over 20 percentage points on clay and in 2022, it’s over 30 percentage points. It bears reminding once more, this is the case with most players on tour, but most players on tour are being flattened by the Pole.

Finally, let’s look at the matchup and see if there’s any reason to believe that Gauff can keep things closer than most.

Her serve and backhand combination is the strength. The forehand is a major liability. Iga’s biggest weapon on clay? Her forehand, which combines pace and spin to an exceptional level, will be hitting into one of the weaker forehands among the best players on the WTA Tour. She’s also by far the best returner on tour, which doesn’t bode well, as that neutralises one of Gauff’s biggest advantages in her serve. Not to mention, Swiatek’s serve has become a weapon in its own right.

Swiatek has now been the writeup for the third time in four days. Yet if the market continues to acknowledge she’s dominant, but not quite enough, we must keep attempting to exploit those mistakes.