tennis | Friday, August 26, 2022 8:01 AM (Revised at: Friday, August 26, 2022 8:02 AM)

Friday Tennis Best Bet: US Open Men’s Qualifiers, Maximilian Marterer vs Riccardo Bonadio

Jon Reid

Maximilian Marterer vs Riccardo Bonadio Best Bet: Friday, August 26th

A nice win from Grenier, who had to fight hard for a 7-6 first set win, before rolling in what was a dominant second set to ensure that he covered the -2.5 games handicap.

Onto Friday, and each match from the U.S. Open will award a main draw position to the winner. A lot of money and potential points are on the line for each qualifier hopeful remaining. Let’s take a look at the match between Maximilian Marterer and Riccardo Bonadio.

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Maximilian Marterer vs Riccardo Bonadio Preview
Maximilian Marterer vs Riccardo Bonadio Best Bet

Maximilian Marterer vs Riccardo Bonadio Preview

August 26th, 16:00 UK Time

What a chance for the German to advance into the main draw of the U.S. Open. Taking on Bonadio, he’s a deserved favourite in this matchup – and probably should be an even larger favourite, all things considered.

For starters, this is the first week we’ve seen Bonadio at a hard-court tournament this season and just the second hard-court event he’s played since the beginning of last season. What had probably started as an easy $21,000 USD paycheque for making the qualifying draw, has quickly turned into over $40,000 and a great chance to reach the main draw.

His game, however, isn’t exactly suited to the surface. The Italian plays with heavy topspin, doesn’t have a ton of pace on his groundstrokes and he simply hasn’t ever played enough matches consistently to build any kind of comfort on hard courts.

Moreover, the Italian was on the brink of being sent home in the second qualifying round. He had to save five match points against Borna Gojo – including several points in the second set tiebreak on Gojo’s serve.

That doesn’t bode well, considering Marterer is another big server and hitter, but matches up even better against Bonadio than the Croatian did. That’s because, not only can he find cheap points on serve, and is the better hard-court player, but Marterer is also a lefty. That’s important in this matchup, because Bonadio plays with a one-handed backhand.

When you’re used to the slower play of a clay court and have a one-handed backhand – typically much tougher to control, especially against power on the other side of the net – playing a lefty, who can target that wing in crosscourt rallies is a major disadvantage.

Statistically, the elo ratings here also suggest that the odds should favour the German even more than they do. Bonadio has one of the worst hard-court elo ratings around at under 1,380, while Marterer’s is over the 1,550 mark.

Maximilian Marterer vs Riccardo Bonadio Best Bet

Considering Bonadio was a point away on several occasions from not being in this position, as well as the matchup and surface concerns, I’m more than happy to give him a head start in the handicap market in this one.

The big German, with the stronger serve and more hard-court experience is 3.5 to four games better in my books, so at -3 games, the handicap is where I’ll be opening a position.