tennis | Friday, August 26, 2022 8:10 AM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: US Open Women’s Qualifiers, Viktorija Golubic vs Astra Sharma

Jon Reid

Viktorija Golubic vs Astra Sharma Best Bet: Friday, August 26th

Well, Thursday’s selection was never – at any point – even remotely close. As much as those suck, at least those losses are much less stressful than the losses at the margins.

Onto Friday, and while I once again believe Eva Lys is overvalued thanks to losing just two games in each of her opening matches, we’re actually going to focus on the match featuring Viktorija Golubic and Astra Sharma for our selection from the women’s tennis events on offer.

In this article:

Viktorija Golubic vs Astra Sharma Preview
Viktorija Golubic vs Astra Sharma Best Bet

Viktorija Golubic vs Astra Sharma Preview

August 26th, 17:30 UK Time

Well, seeing the 29-year-old veteran from Zurich is both a shock, yet unsurprising at the same time. Golubic having to qualify at a grand slam event? That is something I didn’t think would happen in the year 2022. By the same token, that means it shouldn’t be at all surprising that she’s advanced to the final round and is now just two sets from progressing to the main draw.

Despite dropping a set in her second-round encounter against Australian Kimberly Birrell, Golubic is a tier above the other 31 women still involved in the qualifying draw talent-wise.

A matchup with Sharma on hard courts, should see her progress to the main draw without too much resistance.

She’s the far more well-rounded player, possesses a backhand leagues above the Aussie’s and is much more consistent in prolonged rallies. Further, despite Sharma being taller and having the bigger serve, Golubic should be able to dictate her fair share of points from the baseline against an opponent who is all-too-happy to play defensively and with spin.

While Golubic doesn’t play with spin at all, when it’s coming back at her, it will sit up, and allow her to set up her strong, one-handed backhand or line up her forehand that she can generate impressive angles with.

Finally, even when facing Sharma’s bigger first serves, she’s adept at counter-punching her opposition’s pace. That ability to both dictate and counter-punch when needed should help her confound Sharma and make it really difficult for the Australian to carve out a path to victory.

Viktorija Golubic vs Astra Sharma Best Bet

Taking all that into account and then looking at each of these women’s form, it’s easy to come to the conclusion that this handicap should be on the other side of four games. Sharma is 6-12 on the year on outdoor hard courts – including her two wins in New York. The two wins this week include one over a one-dimensional ITF server in Jesika Ponchet (in a third set tiebreak) and another against an ITF clay-court specialist in Reka-Luca Jani (also in three sets). Golubic has more wins, against tougher opponents on the year and took out one of the tougher players in the draw in Hailey Baptiste in the opening round.

With an elo rating nearly 200 points higher and a hold plus break percentage edge nearing 20% over the last 52 weeks at tour level on hard courts, I’m more than comfortable giving up a few games to start this match.