tennis | Thursday, October 13, 2022 1:50 PM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Cluj-Napoca, Jule Niemeier vs Jasmine Paolini

Jon Reid

Jule Niemeier vs Jasmine Paolini Best Bet: Friday, October 14th

Well the conditions favoured Ysaline Bonaventure on Thursday as expected. Unfortunately, despite running Anhelina Kalinina around the court, she was not able to put away the extended rallies and committed far too many unforced errors, leading to a loss.

For Friday, we’ll finish the week with our fifth consecutive selection from the WTA 250 event in Cluj-Napoca, Romania. It’s quarterfinal day in northwestern Romania, and our featured matchup is between Jule Niemeier and Jasmine Paolini.

In this article:

Jule Niemeier vs Jasmine Paolini Preview
Jule Niemeier vs Jasmine Paolini Best Bet

Jule Niemeier vs Jasmine Paolini Preview

October 14th, Time TBD

Another selection on a Jule Niemeier match this week (in fact, had the price not moved, this would’ve been the third time previewing her match from three matches played this week).

Once again, my numbers have her incredibly undervalued in this matchup on a hard court. What’s more, that number is for a neutral hard court, not taking into account the 340 metres of altitude, which also heavily favours the German who has a much larger serve and more potent groundstrokes.

Paolini may be prepared to deal with the power of Niemeier after playing Dayana Yastremska in her last match, but the difference between the two opponents will still be stark. Niemeier possesses far more rally tolerance and hits with far more purpose. She can also ramp it down and has a “plan b” if things aren’t working.

As for Paolini herself, she tends to want to dial up the pace on her forehand wing as well, but her control is far from being adequate. We’ve seen her commit upwards of 35 unforced errors in a two-set match several times this season. The power-centric game simply isn’t natural for her and with her stature, she’s more suited to a counterpunching style and defensive game.

Jule Niemeier vs Jasmine Paolini Best Bet

As I alluded to earlier in the week, Niemeier continues to be an incredibly undervalued player in the betting markets on hard courts for my numbers.

Power rating wise, I have her well inside the top-25 or top-30 hard courters in the world, yet she continues to be priced up as a slight favourite against players at smaller events that aren’t close to being the best in the game on the surface.