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tennis | Friday, September 30, 2022 8:11 AM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Parma, Ana Bogdan vs Mayar Sherif

Friday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Parma, Ana Bogdan vs Mayar Sherif
Contributor: Mariano Garcia / Alamy Stock Photo

Ana Bogdan vs Mayar Sherif Best Bet: Friday, September 30th

Tough go on Thursday with the women’s selection, as Jasmine Paolini seemed to have lost the plot from the beginning. With 39 unforced errors in that match, she was lucky to have won four games in each set.

For Friday’s wager, we’ll stick with the clay courts of Parma and preview the match between Ana Bogdan and Mayar Sherif.

In this article:

Ana Bogdan vs Mayar Sherif Preview

September 30th, 16:00 UK Time

Really interesting pricing on this matchup in the marketplace at the moment. Bogdan and Sherif have both found success on clay courts for different reasons this season, yet we see Sherif as a rather sizable underdog in the betting markets.

For Bogdan, this has been by far and away her best year on the red dirt. There’s a few reasons for this, primarily because she’s added significantly to her ball retrieval and defensive skills, as well as her rally tolerance (ability to play the longer rallies without committing an error – obviously important on the slower red clay surface).

It should also be pointed out, however, that she’s also built a lot of her impressive record against lesser opposition. One could make the case that it was her last match against an in-form Irina Begu that stands out as her highest quality victory on the surface tso far. With power and now improved (albeit, not great) defensive skills, she’s certainly much better than the typical lower-level clay-court grinder. Sherif, however, isn’t exactly that type of player.

While the Egyptian does prefer playing on clay, it should be noted, that comes down to the spin she generates from her forehand wing (she has one of the more extreme grips on tour on that wing – which also helps explain her utterly embarrassing record off the clay). She also possesses a big serve and can hit right back at the Romanian. While her mobility isn’t the greatest, she’s got a similar resume to Bogdan, in terms of having made a living – and ranking – off beating up on players in weaker 250 fields, as well as making deep runs in tournaments at the WTA 125K level.

With a style that suits the clay, but also the ability to hit bigger serves and forehands, she’s not the typical clay-court grinder and defender that Bogdan has chewed up and spit out this year.

Ana Bogdan vs Mayar Sherif Best Bet

I can understand Bogdan being a slight favourite in this matchup. She’s more well-known to the market, has significantly improved on the dirt this season and has a higher pedigree for her career on the whole.

In this individual matchup, however, I’m a bit hesitant to believe she deserves to be an overwhelming favourite.

Sherif is no slouch, especially at this level, and especially against someone who only has a win or two against someone of her calibre on the clay this year to this point.

I’ll back the underdog here in a position where her implied probabilities of winning are below 40% and I think she should be well above that threshold.

  • Selection: Sherif to win
  • Best Odds: 2.70 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 9:05 am on September 30th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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