tennis | Friday, May 26, 2023 7:49 AM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Rabat, Julia Grabher vs Julia Riera

Jon Reid

Julia Grabher vs Julia Riera Best Bet: Friday, May 26th

From a 7-game margin of victory to a 10-game margin of loss for Alycia Parks in Rabat in just 24 hours. The former didn’t go well for us, the latter went swimmingly, as Lucia Bronzetti was able to rout the American en route to the semifinals.

To wrap up the week, we’ll stick with the event in Morocco and preview the match between Julia Grabher and Julia Riera.

In this article:

Julia Grabher vs Julia Riera Preview
Julia Grabher vs Julia Riera Best Bet

Julia Grabher vs Julia Riera Preview

May 26th, 12:00 (UK Time)

We’ve previewed Grabher a few times in recent months during the clay-court season, and I think we’re seeing her in yet another match where she’s undervalued.

While she is the favourite in this matchup, I feel like between her history and her game, she should be a more substantial one.

Riera is a decent young player, but doesn’t have a whole lot to her game and almost all her success this year has come at lower-level ITF events and in South America, where the fields at many events tend to be a bit weaker than their European counterparts.

The market is clearly big on Riera’s wins over Mayar Sherif and Yulia Putintseva, but the week before a grand slam, early round upsets should generally be taken with a grain of salt, and in the Putintseva match, she was simply able to take advantage of increasingly erratic play and an opponent that isn’t always the most level-headed on the court when things aren’t going well.

The fact is, even if this dream run continues, I’m not sure she should be given a 44% chance by the market.

Julia Grabher vs Julia Riera Best Bet

Time and time again, we see an underdog come out of basically nowhere to pick up a pair of big wins, only to be overvalued the next time they take the court.

I think that’s precisely what we’re seeing here with Riera.

While a decent young player, we still haven’t seen enough from her to take her from a large underdog against strong tour-level players to a fairly slight underdog against another tour-level regular, even if Grabher isn’t quite at the level of Putintseva or Sherif just yet.

We can also put aside motivational concerns at this stage of a tournament. Once you’ve won three times and reached the semifinal with your maiden title at this level in sight, it’s highly likely you’re gunning for that win as hard as possible.

I’ll take the more established player with more offence to her game in this one at a relatively cheap price.