tennis | Thursday, January 5, 2023 10:38 AM (Revised at: Friday, January 6, 2023 10:51 AM)

Friday Tennis Best Bet: WTA United Cup, Madison Keys vs Magda Linette

Jon Reid

Madison Keys vs Magda Linette Best Bet: Friday, January 6th

We saw all of the positives of the Aryna Sabalenka game, without many of the negatives, as she beat Marketa Vondrousova in 21 games. The Czech came close to an absolutely monumental comeback for us (she had two break points to cash the bet), but fell short by the hook in the end.

For Friday’s selection, we head to the United Cup, for the No. 2 women’s line match between Madison Keys, representing America and Magda Linette, representing Poland.

In this article:

Madison Keys vs Magda Linette Preview
Madison Keys vs Magda Linette Best Bet

Madison Keys vs Magda Linette Preview

January 7th, 00:30 (UK Time)

Australia has once again been kind to the 27-year-old from Rock Island, Illinois. After winning a tuneup event in Adelaide in 2022, Keys went on to reach the semifinal of the year’s opening grand slam – losing only to the now retired and absolutely dominant Ashleigh Barty.

Now in 2023, Keys has picked up where she left off in the Australian summer, with three wins on the trot at the United Cup, helping the United States reach the latter stages of the mixed-gender team event. She’s lost just a single set (in her last match against Katie Swan) along the way, and the quick courts have once again been kind to her overwhelming power, both with her serve and baseline game.

Her wins have also come against different types of players. From a straight sets victory over one of the best movers and defenders on tour in Marie Bouzkova, to dismantling the power game of Jule Niemeier, the quality of competition is nothing to sneer at for the American.

In fairness to Linette, she too has only dropped one set in three matches and is also much more comfortable on hard courts than anywhere else. There are more questions regarding just where her level is at, considering in both her straightforward wins, she took on a pair of lesser-known players (at least when it comes to hard-court tennis).

Ultimately, Keys has shown this week and really, since the start of the 2022 stretch of Australian tennis, that she is one of the five or so players to beat in the warm, quick conditions of Australia. She’s hit through one counterpunching defender already, and it’s tough to see where Linette would fare much better.

With Keys possessing one of the best serves in women’s tennis, as well, it goes without saying that it’s likely Linette is the one that is facing pressure in her service games far more consistently.

Madison Keys vs Magda Linette Best Bet

There are certainly some question marks about Keys’ ability to play dominant tennis in slower conditions and about the sustainability of her power.

She’s shown that those questions aren’t really justified for the opening month of the season (she also reached the final of a tuneup event in Australia in 2020). Dating back to the start of last season, she’s covered the 2.5-game handicap in all but two of the 13 wins she’s racked up down under.

For my money, she’s still not getting the respect she deserves in the betting markets during this section of the calendar, and I’m happy to play her to beat Linette and cover what amounts to a relatively diminutive handicap.

Selection: Keys -2.5 Games
Odds: 1.85 (Pinnacle)
Stakes: 5/10
Bonus: Keys -4 Games at 2.47 odds with Pinnacle, using 1/10 stakes.

Odds as at 3:20 am on January 6th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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