tennis | Petak, Jun 10, 2022 7:43 AM (Revised at: Petak, Jun 10, 2022 10:00 AM)

Friday's ATP Tennis Best Bet: Stuttgart, June 10th

Jon Reid

ATP Stuttgart Best Bet: Berrettini vs Sonego

Friday June 10th, 11:20 UK Time

What a time for Matteo Berrettini to return to the tour, as the grass swing begins. Last year’s Wimbledon finalist couldn’t ask for a better surface to return to in terms of finding his footing and rhythm.

Big serve, flat balls, success in the past and points short enough to allow him to build up his physical play.

He takes on compatriot Lorenzo Sonego in his second match from Stuttgart on Friday, and that match will be the focus of Friday’s ATP preview.

Despite both men hailing from a country dominated by clay-court tennis and nearly devoid of grass courts, both profile really well on the quicker surface.

Since 2019, Sonego has managed a 13-6 record on the grass, including a title in Turkey in 2019 and a run to Wimbledon’s second week a season ago. Berrettini’s accomplishments on the grass are well known in their own right, as he boasts a 28-8 career record on the surface. That includes the aforementioned appearance in the Wimbledon final just under a year ago.

The records make sense as well, with both men possessing incredible pace behind their first serves and big forehands capable of putting away points early if their opposition does somehow manage to put the serves in play.

Like so many other matches in the early goings of the grass-court season, this one has all the hallmarks of a match destined to go over the 24 or 25-game mark. Both men have elevated ace rates. They both hold over 85% of the time on grass, their hold plus break percentage totals are just one point apart and they both win over 75% of points behind their first serves.

Yet once more, we see the markets setting the games total at 23.5. It looks to be another spot to attack a game total that is a game or two too low.