tennis | Friday, July 15, 2022 7:17 AM (Revised at: Friday, July 15, 2022 7:06 PM)

Friday's WTA Tennis Best Bet: Budapest, July 15th

Jon Reid

WTA Budapest BEST BET: TREVISAN vs BONDAR

Friday, July 15th, 14:30 UK Time

Tough scene from Lausanne for Thursday’s selection, as Kalinskaya falls from a 4-1 lead and the chance to serve out the match from *5-4 in the third and deciding set. Still waiting for a few of those to come our way, but we move to Friday’s quarterfinal action!

For Friday’s best bet from the WTA Tour, we head to the Hungarian capital for a match between Anna Bondar, playing in front of her home country’s fans, and Martina Trevisan, who has put a dismal beginning of 2022 behind her and looked right at home on the red dirt.

Before getting into the handicap, I want to fully disclose that I have a bet on Anna Bondar to win the tournament outright, and at least part of my thinking behind backing the Italian comes from that perspective. That said, I still think she’s a decent value play at the odds on offer even for those who don’t have a Bondar outright.

The 28-year-old has been in absolutely stellar form since mid-May on the red clay, having won Rabat and made the semifinals at the French Open (one-upping her performance in 2020 when she made the quarters and lost only to the eventual champion, Iga Swiatek).

She’s now 12-1 in her last 13 matches on the surface and while both women possess similar hold plus break percentages, the Italian has an elo rating about 50 points higher, as much of Bondar’s success has come against some middling competition (including her first two opponents this week).

I’m a big fan of Bondar’s game, but without an elite serve and a baseline game that can be very erratic, she matches up poorly in this spot, with Trevisan being elite both in terms of her return of serve, as well as her ability to play rock-solid tennis and prolong points from the baseline.

With the form and matchup heavily favouring Trevisan and the statistical matchup also giving her a slight edge when accounting for quality of competition, I’m backing her to win the match at a relatively cheap price.