Cristian Garin vs Benjamin Hassan Prediction, Odds, H2H, Player Stats and Form 3/29/24

The final preview of the day also comes from an ATP Challenger. It’s the Eurofirms Girona, where we’ll have our Garin vs Hassan prediction and betting pick. Hassan’s win probability is 40% while Garin is favored to win at 1.50 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.

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Garin vs Hassan Prediction: Hassan to Wear Down Potentially Tiring Chilean

• Prediction: Garin to win
• Best Odds: 2.50
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as of 2:30 am UK Time on March th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

A few reasons for this bet. For starters, I like that Hassan plays a very solid game. That comes in key against someone like Garin on Friday for a few reasons. On a macro level, Garin doesn’t have an abundance of firepower, so prolonging rallies should mean plenty of break-point chances.

Secondly, from a vantage point more geared towards this specific match, long points and long games are Hassan’s friend. Garin has played over 5.5 hours of tennis in the last two days and won’t have a day off between the first and second rounds or the second round and quarterfinals thanks to the rain earlier this week.

Between the resurgent form of Hassan, the matchup boding well, and the potential fatigue of his opponent, I’m happy to back him to pull off the upset here. Our Garin vs Hassan prediction is for Hassan to win at 2.50 odds.

Cristian Garin Recent Form

For just the second time this season, the former world No. 17 has won a main draw match at a tournament. This also marks the first quarterfinal that he’s reached in 2024. Sure, it’s at a Challenger event and I’m sure the native of Arica, Chile would prefer to be playing at the main tour level, but that’s exactly what the Challenger level is for when it comes to struggling guys who used to be top-100 mainstays.

Now, it hasn’t been smooth sailing by any means. He needed well over three hours to defeat Henrique Rocha who was coming off a Challenger title over the weekend. His serve in that match was as underwhelming as they come.

Then against Nicolas Moreno de Alboran, he won in straight sets, but midway through the second set, that match reached the two-hour mark. He was only broken once, so his serve must’ve been much better right? Wrong. He faced break points in seven different service games and that total ended up being in double digits. He just managed to save 10 of the 11 de Alboran generated.

With over 5.5 hours of tennis in his legs in the last two days, I struggle to see how that serve gets more effective on Friday. Tired legs only lead to a reduction in velocity. With the way Hassan can return and the way he spreads the court, I expect Garin to face plenty of pressure and be forced to do a lot of running. Double whammy.

Benjamin Hassan Recent Form

Much like Garin, Hassan has managed to use this week to kickstart his season after a sluggish start.

Some relatively tough competition compared to what he’s used to, but Hassan couldn’t seem to find wins consistently. This marks the first time in 2024 that he’s won multiple main draw matches in a week as well.

Beating Billy Harris on clay isn’t all that impressive, but he did cover the handicap, which could be an indicator he’s being undervalued this week. He then crushed Bernabe Zapata Miralles, a win I was very impressed with having watched that match Thursday morning.

His serve was very effective, not just because of the pace, but also because of how well he placed it and how prepared he was to take the first forehand early and into the open court.

He’s got solid rally tolerance, can start points on return, doesn’t have a major weakness from the baseline, and with how much trouble Garin has had finding clean holds of serve this week, he should be able to apply constant pressure to his opponent.

Cristian Garin vs Benjamin Hassan H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior matches between Garin and Hassan.

Elo-wise, I’m stunned that the delta between these two in the blended rating is just over 100 points in favor of the Chilean. Not only have these two been on opposite trajectories the last year, but with the circumstantial considerations for this match fatigue-wise, I’m surprised the market isn’t valuing Hassan much more than this.

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