Luca Nardi vs Matteo Martineau Prediction, Odds, H2H, Stats and Player Form 3/29/24

Well, with no odds posted for the second men’s semifinal or women’s final from Miami, we’ll head down to the ATP Challenger Tour for our next preview of the tennis betting world on Friday. Martineau’s win probability is only 29.9% while Nardi is favored to win at 1.33 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 21.5. Let’s delve into our Nardi vs Martineau prediction in second-round action (rain has come down a lot this week, pushing matches back by a day and they’re still trying to catch up).

The Napoli Tennis Cup has a pretty strong field, considering it’s the second week of a Masters event (though that’s on a different continent) and it falls into the Challenger 125 category (meaning there are more rankings points and money on offer here than most Challenger Tour tournaments).

Nardi vs Martineau Prediction: Clay Quality of Nardi to Outshine Frenchman

• Prediction: Nardi -4 Games
• Best Odds: 1.87
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as of 1:15  am UK Time on March 29th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

A day after Martineau disappointed the Italian crowd by coming back from match point down against Nardi’s compatriot Franco Agamenone, it’ll be the youngster that looks to provide them with more joy this time around.

I’m big on Nardi’s chances in this one, considering Martineau is not a clay courter, his tendency to come into the forecourt isn’t nearly as effective on the surface, Nardi is far more talented and the Martineau one-handed backhand really struggles against heavier topspin groundstrokes coming up off the dirt. Our Nardi vs Martineau prediction is for Nardi to cover the -4 game handicap at 1.87 odds.

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Luca Nardi Recent Form

It’s been a pretty good year for one of the many young, talented Italians. He may not be on the level of his compatriot Matteo Arnaldi, or into the top 100 yet like another talent in Flavio Cobolli, but he’s put together some decent matches.

While he can be erratic, the ability to play a well-rounded game when he’s playing a more patient style is certainly impressive.

He’s probably best known to the tennis world now thanks to his win (as a lucky loser from qualifying no less) against Novak Djokovic, though that iteration of Djokovic was so clearly hampered physically that I’m not sure it was as big of a deal as many are making it out to be.

Even without that win though, he also beat a tour regular in Zhizhen Zhang in Indian Wells, crushed an upstart Terence Atmane in qualifying, and played veteran David Goffin close in the second round of qualifying.

He also made a Challenger Tour final from earlier in the year and beat Jozef Kovalik in the first round convincingly a few days after the Slovak won a title in Zadar, Croatia.

I like the form, the surface edge he has, and the talent for Nardi much more than his opponent, and do think a lopsided set win is in play fairly often here.

Matteo Martineau Recent Form

With Australia having played in the evening for January, I was able to focus a lot more on Challenger tennis happening during the day here in the Eastern time zone in North America. That meant getting a good look at Martineau and his game.

I was a fan. On hard courts. The strong first serve, willingness to rush the net, and ability once he got to the forecourt and strong forehand are all strengths for quicker court tennis.

Unfortunately, they’re not as effective on clay courts, and in the case of following serves into the net, they can be a detriment. Movement is emphasized on the dirt – something he’s not adept at – and his one-handed backhand is more used to hitting block returns and redirecting pace on quicker surfaces, rather than dealing with the higher bounce and heavier spin of most clay court groundstrokes.

He did not look good on Thursday. He trailed the whole way and was being dominated for all intents and purposes until Franco Agamenone neared the finish line and almost forgot how to serve.

Martineau has done a solid job of beating older players or those who break down physically in matches, and as a result since the start of 2022, he’s 53-43 on the surface. Now, that’s not even a great record, and as I said, the resume lacks quality wins, while also being propped up by 18 ITF-level wins and a few more from Bundesliga competition (a club league that is not professional and doesn’t earn rankings points or tour-sanctioned money).

Luca Nardi vs Matteo Martineau H2H – Stat of the Match

The only time these two played each other was a few years ago at the Forli Challenger on clay. Now, that was decided in two tiebreaks (the one way I’m not surprised Martineau could keep things competitive – turn it into a servefest) and Nardi has improved a lot (certainly more than Martineau) since that match. It was also a match that saw the Frenchman win over 90% of his first serves. Good luck winning that many on slower clay in Napoli on Friday.

He also saved seven of the eight break points he faced that day. Regression is due, Nardi has improved a lot since then and Martineau’s game isn’t made for this surface.

I made this a 1.22 odds match for Nardi and my true handicap is -5 games.

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