Ugo Humbert vs Francisco Comesana Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 28th

Right after our first preview finishes, Ugo Humbert vs Francisco Comesana takes to Court 7 at the U.S. Open. Much like the other match, it’s a proficient hard courter against an Argentine who came up on clay. Let’s jump in.

Comesana’s win probability is just over 10%, while Humbert is favored to win at 1.09 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 

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Our Humbert vs Comesana prediction is for Comesana to surprise people and keep things relatively close.

Ugo Humbert vs Francisco Comesana Prediction: Closer Match Than Expected for Humbert

• Prediction: Comesana +7.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.92
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 3:30 am UK Time on August 28th, 2024. 

As much as I like to fade more natural clay court players, Comesana has proven a few times in recent months that though he prefers the red dirt, he can still play competitive tennis on other surfaces as well.

That’s in large part due to his ability to accumulate a decent number of cheap points with a strong first serve. That alone goes a long way to helping clay courters translate their games onto the quicker hard courts.

Humbert is definitely a tough customer, with a huge lefty serve and powerful, flat groundstrokes himself, but he’s also very error-prone and hasn’t done enough for my money to be such an overwhelming favorite.

If Comesana can use his defensive skills and rally tolerance to elicit errors from his French counterpart and rack up service holds with solid serving, he may not pull off the upset, but I think he has a chance to keep proceedings closer than most would expect and maybe even steal a set along the way.

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Ugo Humbert Recent Form

For a favorite in the 1.10 odds range, Humbert certainly doesn’t have the kind of form you’d like to see if you’re backing someone so short. I understand he’s playing someone without much of a track record on the surface, but those are some wild odds for someone who has only really made inroads at two tournaments since April – both on grass, where his more volatile game is protected by courts that play so fast that points tend to be much shorter.

Even his opener here against a clay courter in Thiago Monteiro may look routine, but Monteiro was fairly competitive for long stretches of that match.

A lot of this match is going to come down to how much control the world No. 17 can play with. If he’s able to limit the unforced errors, he should be able to wrap things up quickly without much fuss. As he’s proven though, that’s a big if as errors are a big part of his game and come to the fore in far more matches than not.

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Francisco Comesana Recent Form

The 23-year-old may not be the most proficient on quicker surfaces just yet, but a lot of that has to do with inexperience.

With his game holding up nicely across grass season and then being enough to get a win in the opening round as a 3.50 odds underdog, it’s clear that with more time and reps, he could certainly become a more competent hard courter.

With enough of a serve at his disposal and the ability to keep things close paired with an erratic opponent, I think a 7.5-game head start is generous, to say the least.

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Ugo Humbert vs Francisco Comesana H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior matches between these two.

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