American Undervalued: Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 5/16/24

The final day of quarterfinal action from the ATP side of things at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. The day session sees Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul along with a WTA match. Let’s delve into this one a bit more. Jon Reid’s Hurkacz vs Paul prediction and betting pick at 2.28 odds is available below!

Paul’s win probability is just under 44%, while Hurkacz is favored to win at 1.70 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

Hurkacz vs Paul Prediction: Underdog Shows Promise at Price on Offer

• Prediction: Paul to win
• Best Odds: 2.28
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on May 16th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I don’t see a whole lot of value on the board for Thursday’s matchups in the men’s draw, but I will say that Paul as a clear underdog is something I’ll back with a standard stake. The day session certainly helps Hurkacz with warmer conditions probably helping his elite first serve, but he’s been far from dominant this week and this is probably the best competition he’s faced yet.

Paul has also been playing some strong tennis and just beat a big first serve with the ability to play grinding, defensive, consistent tennis from the baseline in Daniil Medvedev. He also possesses a game that has the characteristics to bother Hurkacz in the same way that the Pole’s last opponent, Sebastian Baez, did.

Paul has the advantage on the forehand side, and can hit bigger, while also being consistent and patient so the pushing of Hurkacz in those crosscourt exchanges doesn’t cause him to hit too many errors.

Hard for me to think Paul – with far more weapons to his game – is only slightly more likely to beat Hurkacz than Baez, who was up a set and a break despite lacking in the service and power departments. My Hurkacz vs Paul prediction is for Paul to win.

Find our preview for Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Nicolas Jarry on the Expert Insights page.

Hubert Hurkacz Recent Form

We talked a bit about Hurkacz’s form the other day when we previewed his tilt against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. He may be 11-2 this year on clay, but man have his draws been kind. This would easily be his best win (considering the state of Rafael Nadal at the moment) should he manage it.

Etcheverry had plenty of chances in the opening set but played a putrid tactical match and folded in the second set after losing a demoralizing opener. Baez should have beaten Hurkacz, leading him by a set and break last round, despite being fairly underpowered.

He did lay out the path to victory against the big server though. If you can get balls in play and target his forehand wing, it is susceptible to breaking down if you can continually hit it with a decent spin. That is Hurkacz’s weaker wing.

Even if it’s warmer and that adds a few km/h to his serve, I just don’t see how he can be a clear favorite on clay and on courts that don’t play all that quickly from the baseline.

Tommy Paul Recent Form

Paul is another player who hasn’t been tested all that much in terms of quality of competition in his wins on clay this year. The difference is, that he’s been far more dominant against the lesser competition he’s come up against.

He also did have that nice win over Medvedev last round, which does lend his resume some credibility.

The American isn’t the best on clay, but he is no worse when it comes to ability on the dirt than Hurkacz. Though he can’t match the big man’s serve, he should have a clear advantage on the forehand side, possesses enough rally tolerance not to be coaxed into a deluge of errors and his athleticism and movement are clear advantages as well.

I’m more than happy to back him to finally end this semi-fraudulent run of Hurkacz on Thursday.

Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul H2H – Stat of the Match

The all-time head-to-head series is 1-1 between these two, with Hurkacz sneaking past Paul indoors in Paris three years ago and Paul taking him out in slower conditions at Tennis Paradise in Indian Wells last year.

They played twice during the pandemic exhibitions, but I’m not including non-professional matches that play first to four games wins the set in the record.

The small sample we have suggests these two play very close matches, and with Paul having the edge on slower surfaces for me, I’m happy to back him at a nice price well above 2.00.

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