tennis | Petak, Februar 17, 2023 8:26 AM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Doha, Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova

Jon Reid

Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova Best Bet: Friday, February 17th

Lovely stuff from Jessica Pegula on Thursday, as we get the expected outcome against Beatriz Haddad Maia. It’s always nice when things point in a certain direction, the value is there in the betting markets and the bet comes through!

For Friday, there are just two matches in Doha to choose from. For our selection, I’m looking at the match featuring the world No. 1 in Iga Swiatek, as she continues her title defence against Veronika Kudermetova.

In this article:

Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova Preview
Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova Best Bet

Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova Preview

February 17th, 13:30 (UK Time)

It’s been a pretty smooth week for the Pole in her bid to win this event in back-to-back seasons. She began with an absolutely dominant performance against Danielle Collins (who beat her at the Australian Open in 2022). That match took just 53 minutes. She then received a walkover, as last week’s Abu Dhabi champion Belinda Bencic withdrew after playing a lot of tennis leading into that potential matchup and wasn’t fit to take her on.

Combined with a first-round bye, that’s been Swiatek’s path to the semis.

She should feel confident in her chances to reach the final as well, considering Kudermetova doesn’t necessarily fit the bill for the type of player that typically upsets her.

The Russian does have a pretty strong serve, but she doesn’t have the overwhelming power that it typically requires to disrupt Swiatek’s rhythm and her second serve isn’t the weakest on tour, but it’s far from being elite, and that’s where Swiatek really puts in the work to post a break rate that was in the 50% range in 2022 and is up over 43% to date in 2023.

The court coverage, relentless forehand with spin and a second serve she backs up 60% of the time (incredible number for the WTA Tour) all set her apart from the field.

Her elo rating is hundreds of points clear of Kudermetova, she leads the hold plus break percentage in this one by over a dozen points and she should be able to find her rhythm throughout.

When those things all align, we typically see her post at least one lopsided set score en route to victory. I’m happy to back her here minus the games.

Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova Best Bet

I have no problem giving up a 5-game head start in this position. My numbers make her a 5.5 to 6-game favourite, so there’s still plenty of room to get involved