tennis | Thursday, May 4, 2023 9:44 AM (Revised at: Thursday, May 4, 2023 9:45 AM)

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Madrid, Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova

Jon Reid

Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova Best Bet: Thursday, May 4th

Suffice it to say, Lucia Bronzetti performing well to start a lower-level tournament for the second time all year fooled me.

There’s clearly something wrong with the Italian right now in terms of her game, and it’s becoming rather clear backing her – even at outrageous handicaps against players she’s much better than – may just be a recipe to lose a lot of money.

For Thursday, we’ll delve into the match between Iga Swiatek and Veronika Kudermetova from Madrid.

In this article:

Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova Preview
Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova Best Bet

Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova Preview

May 4th, 20:30 (UK Time)

It’s the fourth chapter of Swiatek vs. Kudermetova, and the Russian will be looking to win four games in a set for the first time.

No, that’s not a mistake, Kudermetova has played six sets against Swiatek and not one of them has gone past 6-3. In fact, the last four have ended in either 6-0 or 6-1 scorelines.

As someone who isn’t the biggest fan of just looking at head-to-head results and locking in bets, I want to talk about why those scores are so consistently lopsided.

Consider this as well, all three of those meetings were on hard courts, where the world No. 1 is still dominant, but far more vulnerable.

When it comes to troubling or beating Swiatek, it tends to take a certain kind of player. Those with big serves and powerful groundstrokes. Even then – especially on clay – that player would need to sustain a very high level for a lengthy period to get the job done, or even stay within shouting distance of the Pole.

Kudermetova simply doesn’t fit that profile. Her serve isn’t weak per se, and her forehand has some bite to it, but not nearly enough to keep Swiatek on her heels and avoid her setting her feet to unleash the powerful and heavy groundstrokes that make her nearly unbeatable on clay.

Her other asset – the ability to come to net – that she’s developed with an incredibly successful doubles career is also something that doesn’t bother one of the best passers in tennis.

It’s simply an incredibly poor matchup for the world No. 13.

Finally, the form of Swiatek has been strong this fortnight, as she’s dominated everyone she’s played except for Ekaterina Alexandrova (who came back in the second set to win it in a tiebreak), who can absolutely pummel the ball from the baseline.

Kudermetova entered Madrid in poor form and has won all her matches, but she’s needed some incredibly close affairs against much weaker competition to get to this point.

Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova Best Bet

I’m actually really surprised to see this total as high as 18.5 games.

In normal circumstances, writing out those words would be madness, considering how low that total is.

With Swiatek on clay, however, it’s become the norm. Forget the fact that Kudermetova hasn’t managed to force Swiatek to 19 games on her weaker surface, or that she’s lost their three matchups by an average of just over nine games, just look at the matchup and form and there’s very little reason to believe Kudermetova has what it takes to push her this time around.