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It really shouldn’t come as a surprise at this point, but it was yet another loss from a very nice start, as Kaja Juvan led 6-3 and then found a break of serve in the opening game of the second set, before winning just three more games the rest of the way. Maria Timofeeva somehow went on to win that tournament, despite hard courts being her preference.
For Monday’s match, we’ll once again look to Juvan, as she takes on another hard courter and quick-court player in Kaia Kanepi.
In this article:
Mon, July 24th, 13:00 (UK Time)
Another day, another opponent who is far better on hard courts and quicker surfaces than the clay. This time it’s the veteran Kanepi, who may be even more vulnerable than Timofeeva.
Her serve and groundstrokes are certainly bigger, but the movement, rally tolerance and ability in prolonged rallies are all liabilities. Needless to say, the latter attributes to one’s game are far more important on the dirt.
Once again, we’re seeing a rather large surface edge here for Juvan, and I don’t mind her in the matchup department either. She isn’t bothered too much by pace, can redirect Kanepi’s power on her forehand side and can work all parts of the court from both her forehand and backhand wings, which should allow her to exploit the Estonian’s subpar movement and foot speed.
For my money, Juvan should be a much larger favourite than we’re seeing in the early-market pricing.
Despite the frustrating loss on Friday, it’s hard to pass on backing the Slovenian once again on Monday.
She’s playing someone whose game is diminished even more on clay courts than Timofeeva’s, and this time we don’t have to give up a 4.5-game head start.
Is there the risk that Kanepi finds a way to somehow hit through the clay courts and the 22-year-old? Sure. At this price, however, I’m happy to potentially suffer another loss at the hands of Juvan.
Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on July 21st, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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