tennis | Monday, April 24, 2023 8:53 AM (Revised at: Monday, April 24, 2023 8:57 AM)

Monday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Madrid, Kamilla Rakhimova vs Angela Fita Boluda

Jon Reid

Kamilla Rakhimova vs Angela Fita Boluda Best Bet: Monday, April 24th

Another day, another loss from a set up, as Caroline Garcia’s overly aggressive play on return continues to cost her winnable matches.

It’s onto a two-week event in Madrid, as the ATP and WTA Tours come together for combined events over the next month in the Spanish and Italian capitals.

For Monday’s preview from the women’s event, we’ll look at the matchup between Kamilla Rakhimova and Angela Fita Boluda.

In this article:

Kamilla Rakhimova vs Angela Fita Boluda Preview
Kamilla Rakhimova vs Angela Fita Boluda Best Bet

Kamilla Rakhimova vs Angela Fita Boluda Preview

April 24th, 16:30 (UK Time)

Well I’m not one to typically bet heavy favourites or give up hefty head starts, but my goodness, everything in this one points to a dominant victory for the 21-year-old from Russia.

The gulf in talent is substantial, Rakhimova is able to finish points, is comfortable on clay and can also hang in the prolonged rallies that Fita Boluda is so dependent on to win points.

Unfortunately for the Spaniard, there just isn’t much to her game. The serve is weak and there’s no power to speak of. It’ll likely take her breaking Rakhimova’s serve at a rather high clip just to stay in the match.

For my money, though, Rakhimova is a WTA Tour calibre player. Whether she’s best suited for 125K or 250 events may be up for debate, but I don’t think there’s any dispute that she’s one of the top-100 players in the women’s game right now.

With Fita Boluda being a definite ITF Tour kind of talent, the difference between the level of these two is pronounced.

Fita Boluda has also struggled mightily in 2023. She’s lost her first match at a slew of ITF tournaments and if it weren’t for a title in Telde, Spain against a group of unimpressive players, she’d have just one win on the season.

Finally, we know the Russian is capable of playing at altitude. While Madrid may not have the extreme altitude of Bogota, we have seen Rakhimova make deep runs in back-to-back seasons in the Colombia capital, giving us an indicator that she knows how to deal with how the thinner air affects the travel of the ball off the racquet.

Kamilla Rakhimova vs Angela Fita Boluda Best Bet

The primary reason I’m showing value on this elevated game handicap is primarily because when it comes to looking at the most likely scores in this one, my numbers have Rakhimova winning at least one set by a 6-2 scoreline or better.

That means that in the cases where Rakhimova wins in straight sets (again, something happening a majority of the time for me), she covers in every instance other than a 7-6 scoreline in the other set.

I have this number set at -6 games at odds in the 1.87 range, so I’m happy to give up a rather large head start here at -5.5 games and at odds over evens.