tennis | Monday, February 13, 2023 9:30 AM

Monday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Doha, Karolina Muchova vs Martina Trevisan

Jon Reid

Karolina Muchova vs Martina Trevisan Best Bet: Monday, February 13th

Rough start from the volatile Anastasia Potapova on Friday, but she ended up finding the win for us against Anna Lena Friedsam and didn’t stop there, and she was the eventual champion in Linz.

This week, we’ve got a standalone event in Doha, Qatar, as the best women in the world duke it out for the title for the prestigious 500-level trophy.

In this article:

Karolina Muchova vs Martina Trevisan Preview
Karolina Muchova vs Martina Trevisan Best Bet

Karolina Muchova vs Martina Trevisan Preview

February 13th, 12:30 (UK Time)

I’m not sure whether it’s her ranking, or the one-off win against Maria Sakkari at the United Cup where she played inspired tennis for her country, but Martina Trevisan continues to see game totals that are a game or two too high on hard courts.

There may be no player that is so dependent on a particular surface in the top-50 than the Italian. Her success on clay couldn’t be more antithetical to her results on the quicker hard courts. Topspin isn’t nearly as effective, and her lack of power means players have plenty of time to set up their next shots and tee off on her groundstrokes.

She’s also not nearly as clean in her gameplay as many other defenders and lighter hitters, meaning unforced errors also factor into the equation, and at these kinds of events with such strong fields, that’s a recipe for disaster.

Muchova, on the other hand, is an incredibly well-rounded game and is a former top-20 player for a reason. The 26-year-old has made the second week of both hard-court grand slams, as well as Wimbledon, so quicker surfaces aren’t a problem.

She has a decent serve, the ability to dictate, but also possesses variety in her ability to slice, dropshot and her willingness to come into net.

Karolina Muchova vs Martina Trevisan Best Bet

When it comes to the data metrics, Muchova blows Trevisan out of the water. Not only does she have a hard-court elo rating about 120 points higher, but her hold plus break percentage so far this season is a whopping 40 percentage points higher.

Then there’s the fact that against some of her less talented opposition, she’s been able to put up some lopsided scorelines, while Trevisan has been on the receiving end of those lopsided sets in her matches against strong competition.

In fact, in her five losses this season, Trevisan has yet to win a set and not one of those matches has gone longer than 18 games.

I’m going to split my bets here between the under, which I have being 1.5 games too high and the handicap, which should realistically be in the 6 to 6.5 range.