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tennis | Monday, March 13, 2023 9:10 AM (Revised at: Monday, March 13, 2023 9:11 AM)

Monday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Indian Wells, Karolina Muchova vs Martina Trevisan

Monday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Indian Wells, Karolina Muchova vs Martina Trevisan
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Karolina Muchova vs Martina Trevisan Best Bet: Monday, March 13th

It took a lot of effort, but Maria Sakkari finally earned her first win against Shelby Rogers on Friday at Indian Wells. She trailed by a set and a break, and then late in the second set, she had to save a 0-40 situation, but a win is a win, and we’ll take those big time comebacks.

It’s a new week, however, with the business end of Indian Wells looming. For Monday’s selection from the women’s draw we’ll look at the match between Karolina Muchova and Martina Trevisan.

In this article:

Karolina Muchova vs Martina Trevisan Preview

March 13th, 18:30 (UK Time)

Good on the Italian for reaching the third round at such a competitive, high-level event. Now, she had a bye in the first round and beat Madison Brengle – someone without many attacking options in her game – to do so, but a third-round appearance at Indian Well is solid for her, all things considered.

As for Muchova, she came through a much tougher opponent last round, in Victoria Azarenka in straight sets, and also had to best hard-court grinder Yulia Putintseva in the opening stage of the tournament.

Now 9-3 on the season, with all three losses coming in tight affairs to players like Caroline Garcia (one of the best in the world at the moment) and Danielle Collins (a huge ball striker and tough hard-court competitor) in three sets, as well as a tough defeat in two tiebreaks to an in-form Rebeka Masarova, the 26-year-old is looking every bit the part of the top-25 player she was before being setback by injuries.

She’s got a strong serve, while also being a decent mover and defender to apply pressure on return.

She also slices and uses dropshots with incredible touch, something that should come in handy against Trevisan.

See, the Italian’s strategy is going to be to camp out deep behind the baseline and try to wait out errors from Muchova, by running down and returning absolutely everything. Being able to hit slices that land well inside the court or dropshots that Trevisan won’t be able to track down should keep her honest.

Finally, with both women adept on the return of serve, there should be chances for each to break the other. The difference between these two? Muchova is far more likely to find easy holds. When one player is capable of finding easier holds, but also capable of applying constant pressure on return, that bodes well for winning by a larger margin.

Karolina Muchova vs Martina Trevisan Best Bet

With Trevisan’s poor hard-court record, weaponless game and the fact that she’s here thanks to a ranking that allowed her a first-round bye and then played a perfect matchup for her style in the second round, I’m happy to oppose her here.

I can understand a 19-game total if she were playing someone that doesn’t serve as well as Muchova, or play strong, balanced tennis. Then she may find enough breaks of serve alone to win enough games to send this over the total.

In this instance, though, I have the total set at 18-18.5 games, not the 19 on offer at decent odds.

We played Muchova to win quickly in quicker conditions earlier this season. She did so 6-2, 6-2. While the conditions are better for Trevisan, the matchup remains squarely in the Czech’s favour, and if the books haven’t learned to lower this more than just 0.5 games, I’m happy to have another go at this.

  • Selection: Under 19 Games
  • Best Odds: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 3/10
  • Bonus: Muchova -5.5 Games at 1.80 odds with Bet365, using 2/10 stakes.

Odds as at 5:30 am on March 13th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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