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Poor stuff from Alize Cornet, as we lose our women’s selection to start the week. Onto Tuesday, as we continue to hunt for the value in the week before the grand slam!
For Tuesday, we look to the qualifying draw of the Australian Open for our selection, in the match between Magdalena Frech and Sachia Vickery.
In this article:
January 11th, TBD (UK Time)
One of the few players in this qualifying draw that stands out as a legitimate WTA Tour regular, Frech will be disappointed if she were to fail to reach at least the final qualifying round (a potential matchup with the big serving and in-form Rebekah Masarova could be tricky).
After dispatching the talented, albeit unpolished, Sinja Kraus with ease in the opening qualifying round, the Pole will look to do the same against her American counterpart in this one.
Vickery is a player that has languished consistently at the ITF level. Without major weapons (she can dial the pace up on occasion on her forehand wing, but it is really unreliable), but also without nearly enough solidity from the baseline on a consistent basis, the 27-year-old has found it incredibly difficult to string together wins on the regular.
Frech should pose a problem for a few reasons to Vickery. First, she’s relatively consistent herself, not known for gifting away points with unforced errors, meaning the American could find it tricky to win the points needed to come through.
Secondly, Frech has a nice mix of tools at her disposal in her own right. Her first serve is underrated, and her backhand slice on quicker, lower-bouncing courts is incredibly effective.
With a decent matchup edge, along with a significant talent gap, I don’t think Frech is nearly big enough of a favourite in the betting markets.
My numbers put Frech closer to the 1.35 mark to win this match, rather than the nearly 1.50 price point we’re seeing. That would make her a five-game favourite for me. To get a handicap of -3.5 at 1.85 odds is enough for me to pull the trigger on a rather large staking here.
Odds as at 3:00 am on January 10th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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