Tatjana Maria vs Julia Riera Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 4th

For our second preview of the day, it’s off to the Copa Colsanitas Zurich, a longstanding WTA 250 event in Bogota, Colombia. I want to look at Tatjana Maria vs Julia Riera in a match that sees the German look for her 14th consecutive win in the Colombian capital. Riera’s win probability is 50% while Maria is favored to win at 1.80 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Maria vs Riera Prediction: Argentine the True Favourite to Reach Quarters in Colombia

• Maria vs Riera Prediction: Riera to win
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 8/10

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on April 4th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

As much as Bogota seems to be Maria’s safety blanket, I’ll be opposing this time around, rather than backing her.

It’s odd to see her priced one round against a player she matches up so well against and that commits so many errors as a coin flip, and then to see that similar pricing again the next round against an upstart talent that is far more consistent and in much better form.

Let’s be completely honest, other than the scoreline, there was nothing impressive about Maria’s victory against Anna Bondar. As we expected, she relied on a boatload of unforced errors from the forehand wing and poor misses at the net from her Hungarian opponent to put together what ended up looking like a dominant victory.

Riera has a nice forehand, loves the clay, and has improved enough to be considered the better player in this match – at least in my mind. Our Maria vs Riera prediction is for Riera to win.

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Tatjana Maria Recent Form

It seems like this tournament acts as a kind of safety blanket for the 36-year-old, who has managed to remain in the top-50, despite a really basic game and a slew of early exits at tournaments throughout the year.

Along with Bogota, Maria has deep runs in 125k events in Italy and Barranquilla, as well as a 250 in Cleveland (close proximity to the U.S. Open tends to make that a weaker field as well). You could say that she schedules intelligently to ensure she makes enough deep runs each year to maintain a respectable ranking.

I’m not sure this year will be as kind to her this week, as she takes on a tough, young opponent in just the second round with her 13-match tournament win streak on the line.

Her opening match was pretty poor all things considered. She saved a lot of break points, struggled to land her first serve, and left a lot of short balls that Bondar was all too happy to miss.

Even an improvement in this one may not be enough against someone like Riera. I understand her tournament history here and the fact that she’s got a higher ranking, but I can’t make her the favorite.

In terms of that tournament history, it’s also worth noting, she’s had very weak paths in previous years to the title. That doesn’t take away from the fact that her consistency and serve play well here, it’s just worth noting the context and that the win streak may not be as impressive as some make it out to be without providing additional details.

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Julia Riera Recent Form

It’s been a splendid start to the clay season for the 21-year-old who is currently at a career-high ranking of No. 111 and a deep run this week should see her join the top 100 for the first time.

After looking strong in three straight sets wins in San Luis Potosi, Mexico a week ago at a 125k tournament, she’s continued the strong form in Bogota, dominating home favorite Emiliana Arango in the opening round.

The rally tolerance of the Colombian wasn’t a bother for her, as she could play the longer rallies with patience herself. The difference is that she was far more competent at finishing points and playing on the front foot.

That should serve her well in this matchup as well, against someone who hits very few normal groundstrokes and almost exclusively slices, including on her plus-one shots after landing her first serve.

Her spin allows her to push opponents well behind the baseline as well, and against Maria, that should allow her to force plenty of short balls to attack.

I love the form, her more natural ability on clay courts, and the matchup for Riera in this second-round tilt.

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Tatjana Maria vs Julia Riera H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings between these two. Riera has spent the last little while building her ranking and playing a lot at the 125k and ITF levels.

It’s interesting to see these two so closely matched in terms of blended clay court elo. It’s a great indication of Riera being on an upward trajectory, especially on clay courts, but Maria is more of a main tour regular, so the quality of competition she comes up against generally tends to be tougher.

I’m not sure her slice-heavy game – with so many sitting up and being fairly attackable – is going to be as effective in this match as they were against Bondar or even opponents from last year like Peyton Stearns, Francesca Jones or Nuria Brancaccio.

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